Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia

Tonight I’ll be watching the fight for the New Jersey state legislature, as well as the elections for the Mississippi state House and Senate. In Trenton, Republicans would need to flip 6 seats to take control of the state Senate, and 7 seats to flip the state House. Republicans haven’t held a majority in either chamber in over two decades, but after a closer-than-anticipated 2021 gubernatorial election and a net gain of seven seats in the 2021 legislative elections, some in the party are hopeful that they can continue clawing back some of the ground they’ve lost over the last decade. This is the first cycle under new lines following the 2020 census, and redistricting has pushed a number of lawmakers to the exits — nine state senators and 22 state representatives lost renomination or opted not to run for reelection.

As little suspense as there is in New Jersey, where Democrats are expected to hold onto their majorities, there’s even less in Mississippi, where Republicans have already virutally locked in majorities in both chambers because Democrats failed to field candidates in a majority of races. The real drama will be whether the GOP can pick up five seats (including one vacant seat previously held by the GOP) to secure a supermajority in the state House. That could come in handy if Democratic Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley scores an upset in the gubernatorial race over incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Need to get caught up quickly on one of tonight’s highest-stakes elections, Ohio’s Issue 1? I’ve got the perfect video for you:

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2023 elections to watch: Ohio's abortion vote

A ballot measure could enshrine abortion rights in the Ohio Constitution.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Happy off-year Election Day! Tonight, I’m watching the proposed constitutional amendment on Ohio’s statewide ballot, which would codify abortion rights in the state constitution. It’s not only a temperature check on how voters view abortion rights post-Dobbs, but also a data point in a red state where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is running for reelection in 2024.

A vote approving Issue 1 would, according to the language of the proposed amendment, enshrine the "right to make and carry out one's reproductive decisions, including but not limited to decisions on contraception, fertility treatment, continuing one's own pregnancy, miscarriage care, and abortion." Controversially, though, a GOP-led ballot board had final say on the wording that appeared on today’s ballots, making changes that could dampen support for the measure.

Advocates on each side of the ballot measure have accused the other side of being too extreme and out of step with Ohio voters. Proponents point to the six-week abortion ban without exceptions that Gov. Mike DeWine signed into law (and that’s currently on hold), while opponents say that the law would allow people to have abortions at any point in their pregnancy. In reality, the proposed amendment would specify that “abortion may be prohibited after fetal viability,” though not in cases where a physician determines that the abortion “is necessary to protect the pregnant patient’s life or health.”

Next year, Brown is running for reelection in one of the key races that could decide the next Senate majority. And you can bet that strategists on both sides of the aisle will be assessing the effectiveness of their abortion messaging on this ballot as they prepare to deploy their resources in 2024.

—Leah Askarinam, 538

Hello! I’m Jacob Rubashkin and I’m a reporter and analyst for Inside Elections, a non-partisan newsletter in D.C. that puts out news and analysis of House, Senate and gubernatorial elections across the country. You may know us from the race ratings we assign in those contests: think “toss-up” or “lean Republican,” things of that nature. I’m also a 538 contributor and have joined election night live blogs for the past few years. Tonight I’ll be keeping track of the state legislature fights in two states — New Jersey and Mississippi — but I’ll also be watching how successful Republican messaging is in Kentucky and Mississippi. The GOP has leaned into social issues and tying Democratic gubernatorial candidates to Biden in what could be a preview of their strategy in red state Senate races next cycle. But will it work? We’ll see.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections