Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia

While Americans are casting their votes today on hundreds of races across the nation, most of the key races we’re tracking this evening are in the eastern half of the country, where polls will largely close and results start flowing in after 7 p.m. Eastern.

One of the earliest calls tonight may be in the Kentucky governor’s race. Polls close at 6 p.m. local time, and absentee ballots must be received by then to be counted. Since Kentucky straddles the Eastern and Central time zones, results from the western half of the state will come in a bit later.

Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern for Virginia statehouse races, and at 8 p.m. Eastern for New Jersey statehouse races, at which point we are likely to start to see results coming in. As early vote totals come in, it’s important to remember the potential for blue or red shifts: Early votes and absentee votes tend to be disproportionately Democratic, while Election Day votes tend to be more Republican, meaning that vote totals can shift depending on when those types of votes are counted and released. In Virginia and New Jersey, absentee ballots will be counted on Election Day, meaning they may be underrepresented in early results.

Polls will close at 8 p.m. Eastern in Mississippi, where both governor and state legislative races are on the ballot. Absentee ballots here can be received up to 5 days after Election Day, though delayed results are unlikely to make a huge difference unless races are unexpectedly close. Incumbent Gov. Reeves seems comfortably ahead in polls, making that top-of-ballot contest unlikely to be a nailbiter.

We’re also watching the Ohio abortion referendum, where polls will close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. And at 8 p.m. Eastern, polls will close for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court election, and for the only federal race today — a special election in Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District, the seat left vacant after Democrat David Cicilline resigned in May.

—Monica Potts, 538

Tonight I’ll be watching the fight for the New Jersey state legislature, as well as the elections for the Mississippi state House and Senate. In Trenton, Republicans would need to flip 6 seats to take control of the state Senate, and 7 seats to flip the state House. Republicans haven’t held a majority in either chamber in over two decades, but after a closer-than-anticipated 2021 gubernatorial election and a net gain of seven seats in the 2021 legislative elections, some in the party are hopeful that they can continue clawing back some of the ground they’ve lost over the last decade. This is the first cycle under new lines following the 2020 census, and redistricting has pushed a number of lawmakers to the exits — nine state senators and 22 state representatives lost renomination or opted not to run for reelection.

As little suspense as there is in New Jersey, where Democrats are expected to hold onto their majorities, there’s even less in Mississippi, where Republicans have already virutally locked in majorities in both chambers because Democrats failed to field candidates in a majority of races. The real drama will be whether the GOP can pick up five seats (including one vacant seat previously held by the GOP) to secure a supermajority in the state House. That could come in handy if Democratic Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley scores an upset in the gubernatorial race over incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Need to get caught up quickly on one of tonight’s highest-stakes elections, Ohio’s Issue 1? I’ve got the perfect video for you:

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2023 elections to watch: Ohio's abortion vote

A ballot measure could enshrine abortion rights in the Ohio Constitution.

ABCNews.com

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Happy off-year Election Day! Tonight, I’m watching the proposed constitutional amendment on Ohio’s statewide ballot, which would codify abortion rights in the state constitution. It’s not only a temperature check on how voters view abortion rights post-Dobbs, but also a data point in a red state where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is running for reelection in 2024.

A vote approving Issue 1 would, according to the language of the proposed amendment, enshrine the "right to make and carry out one's reproductive decisions, including but not limited to decisions on contraception, fertility treatment, continuing one's own pregnancy, miscarriage care, and abortion." Controversially, though, a GOP-led ballot board had final say on the wording that appeared on today’s ballots, making changes that could dampen support for the measure.

Advocates on each side of the ballot measure have accused the other side of being too extreme and out of step with Ohio voters. Proponents point to the six-week abortion ban without exceptions that Gov. Mike DeWine signed into law (and that’s currently on hold), while opponents say that the law would allow people to have abortions at any point in their pregnancy. In reality, the proposed amendment would specify that “abortion may be prohibited after fetal viability,” though not in cases where a physician determines that the abortion “is necessary to protect the pregnant patient’s life or health.”

Next year, Brown is running for reelection in one of the key races that could decide the next Senate majority. And you can bet that strategists on both sides of the aisle will be assessing the effectiveness of their abortion messaging on this ballot as they prepare to deploy their resources in 2024.

—Leah Askarinam, 538