Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia

Three Southern states hold gubernatorial elections the year before a presidential election: Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi. But despite the strong Republican lean of these states, Democrats held the governorships of Kentucky and Louisiana coming into this election. The GOP began the year with a real shot of winning all three, and entering today, they’re already one step of the way there: On Oct. 14, Republican state Attorney General Jeff Landry won Louisiana’s governorship outright, avoiding a November runoff. This was an open-seat pickup for Republicans since Democratic incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards was term-limited. Now, all eyes are on Kentucky and Mississippi, where each incumbent governor is slightly favored to win reelection in a competitive contest, based on limited polling and race ratings from Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report.

In Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear faces Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Beshear won in 2019 by less than 1 percentage point against an unpopular GOP governor, but has maintained a high approval rating despite his party identification. He’s painted Cameron as an extreme Republican because of Cameron’s support for Kentucky’s near-total ban on abortion. That message might work: Although Kentucky is conservative, voters last year rejected a constitutional amendment that would have formally stated there is no right to abortion under the state constitution. In his campaign, Cameron has tried to tie Beshear to the unpopular Biden while criticizing the incumbent for his vetoes (later overridden) of anti-transgender legislation. We have very little polling here, but in mid-October competing partisan polls from Hart Research and from co/efficient each found Beshear ahead by differing margins. However, a poll from Emerson College released on Friday showed the two candidates running just about even.

On the flipside, Mississippi is more likely to remain in Republican hands. Republican Gov. Tate Reeves faces Democratic Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, one of just two Democrats in Mississippi’s executive branch (and, yes, a second cousin of Elvis). Reeves has played to the GOP base by highlighting his opposition to transgender women playing women’s sports, while Presley has tried to ding Reeves by connecting him to an ongoing scandal involving the misuse of federal welfare funds by the Mississippi Department of Human Services. We have even less polling to go on here than in Kentucky, however. A late October Public Policy Polling survey on behalf of the Democratic Governors Association gave Reeves only a tiny edge, but that’s maybe the rosiest picture for Presley. The next most recent poll from the Mason-Dixon/Magnolia Tribune put Reeves up 8 points.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

While Americans are casting their votes today on hundreds of races across the nation, most of the key races we’re tracking this evening are in the eastern half of the country, where polls will largely close and results start flowing in after 7 p.m. Eastern.

One of the earliest calls tonight may be in the Kentucky governor’s race. Polls close at 6 p.m. local time, and absentee ballots must be received by then to be counted. Since Kentucky straddles the Eastern and Central time zones, results from the western half of the state will come in a bit later.

Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern for Virginia statehouse races, and at 8 p.m. Eastern for New Jersey statehouse races, at which point we are likely to start to see results coming in. As early vote totals come in, it’s important to remember the potential for blue or red shifts: Early votes and absentee votes tend to be disproportionately Democratic, while Election Day votes tend to be more Republican, meaning that vote totals can shift depending on when those types of votes are counted and released. In Virginia and New Jersey, absentee ballots will be counted on Election Day, meaning they may be underrepresented in early results.

Polls will close at 8 p.m. Eastern in Mississippi, where both governor and state legislative races are on the ballot. Absentee ballots here can be received up to 5 days after Election Day, though delayed results are unlikely to make a huge difference unless races are unexpectedly close. Incumbent Gov. Reeves seems comfortably ahead in polls, making that top-of-ballot contest unlikely to be a nailbiter.

We’re also watching the Ohio abortion referendum, where polls will close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. And at 8 p.m. Eastern, polls will close for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court election, and for the only federal race today — a special election in Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District, the seat left vacant after Democrat David Cicilline resigned in May.

—Monica Potts, 538

Tonight I’ll be watching the fight for the New Jersey state legislature, as well as the elections for the Mississippi state House and Senate. In Trenton, Republicans would need to flip 6 seats to take control of the state Senate, and 7 seats to flip the state House. Republicans haven’t held a majority in either chamber in over two decades, but after a closer-than-anticipated 2021 gubernatorial election and a net gain of seven seats in the 2021 legislative elections, some in the party are hopeful that they can continue clawing back some of the ground they’ve lost over the last decade. This is the first cycle under new lines following the 2020 census, and redistricting has pushed a number of lawmakers to the exits — nine state senators and 22 state representatives lost renomination or opted not to run for reelection.

As little suspense as there is in New Jersey, where Democrats are expected to hold onto their majorities, there’s even less in Mississippi, where Republicans have already virutally locked in majorities in both chambers because Democrats failed to field candidates in a majority of races. The real drama will be whether the GOP can pick up five seats (including one vacant seat previously held by the GOP) to secure a supermajority in the state House. That could come in handy if Democratic Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley scores an upset in the gubernatorial race over incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Need to get caught up quickly on one of tonight’s highest-stakes elections, Ohio’s Issue 1? I’ve got the perfect video for you:

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2023 elections to watch: Ohio's abortion vote

A ballot measure could enshrine abortion rights in the Ohio Constitution.

ABCNews.com

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538