Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia

Brandon Presley is trying to pull off an upset in Mississippi, which hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1999. To do that, he’ll need strong support from Black voters, who are the bedrock of the Democratic Party in the South. Mississippi has the highest proportion of Black residents of any state in the nation at 38 percent, but they are underrepresented in the electorate, usually coming in at around 30 percent of voters. In 2020, Black voters made up 29 percent of the electorate according to the A.P. VoteCast. To win, Presley probably needs Black voters to make up around 35 percent of the electorate. But turnout has only approached that level in elections where Democrats have had a Black candidate at the top of the ticket, specifically Barack Obama in 2012, when Black voters were 36 percent of the electorate, and Mike Espy in 2018’s Senate special election, when Black voters were 32.5 percent of the electorate. (And this wasn’t enough to boost either candidate to victory — Presley, who is white, would also need far greater support from white voters than Obama and Espy received.)

While the Presley campaign has invested significantly in Black voter turnout and worked to court Black voters in a way that 2019 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jim Hood did not, he’s up against some serious structural hurdles. Mississippi has one of the most restrictive felony disenfranchisement laws in the nation owing to provisions of its 1890 constitution, which was written in large part to restrict Black residents from exercising their recently obtained right to vote. A 2020 study found that one in six Black Mississippians are ineligible to vote under state law because of felony convictions. While a federal appeals court panel this summer ordered the state to stop enforcing the disenfranchisement law, that decision has been vacated pending an en banc appeal to the full 5th Circuit, so residents who would have regained their rights are back in limbo.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

One of the sleeper elections I’m watching tonight is the Mississippi governor’s race. In this video, I explain why Presley may be a strong enough candidate to swim against the state’s partisan tide.

2:10

2023 elections to watch: Mississippi governor

Democrats could win the governor's office for the first time since 1999.

ABCNews.com

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

There are more than 275 mayoral races on the ballot around the country today, ranging from the Jersey Shore’s Point Pleasant Beach (population 4,828) to big cities like Houston and Philadelphia. I’ll be closely tracking the results in those two cities, but will also keep an eye throughout the night on local news for surprising outcomes in lower-profile races.

Former Philadelphia City Council member Cherelle Parker is highly favored to replace Mayor Jim Kenney, who is term-limited, after winning an expensive Democratic primary in May. Another former City Council member, David Oh, won the Republican nomination uncontested. A Republican victory would be a shocker here — we don’t have any public polling of the general election, but about three in four Philadelphia voters are registered Democrats, and the city hasn’t had a Republican mayor since 1952. However, Oh has won over Democratic voters before, so it’s a race worth watching. Parker too is a moderate within her party, and made news when she beat out progressive primary opponents with a tough-on-crime platform including support for controversial stop-and-frisk policing tactics. Both candidates would make history with a win: Oh would be the first Asian American ever to serve as mayor of Philadelphia, and remarkably, Philadelphia has never elected a female mayor, so Parker is likely to be the first.

In Houston, the mayor’s race is more competitive, but tonight is likely just the first half of a two-part series. If no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote, the top two performers progress to a runoff election, which will be held on Dec. 9. And with 18 names on the ballot today, it’s going to be tough for any individual candidate to coalesce half of the vote. This race is technically a nonpartisan election, but the top two candidates are longtime Democratic state Sen. John Whitmire and longtime Democratic U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee. Whitmire is by far the top spender in the field. The only public poll we’ve seen so far — conducted by the University of Houston Sept. 30-Oct. 6 — also found Whitmire leading the race with 34 percent of likely voters, followed by Lee at 31 percent. Although they’re both Democrats, Whitmire, who has framed his candidacy around working across the political spectrum, received more support from Republicans and independents in the University of Houston poll. Lee received more votes from Democrats, women and Black voters. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Whitmire led 50 percent to 36 percent.

—Leah Askarinam, 538

Polls are closed in the eastern half of Kentucky and very early results are starting to trickle in. Be aware of a possible blue mirage and a possible red shift later: the early votes, which tend to favor Democrats, are counted first.

—Monica Potts, 538