November’s presidential matchup may be set, but Democrats and Republicans still need to decide who will run in hundreds of downballot races (e.g., for Senate and House) this fall. A batch of these contests were decided on Tuesday, March 19.
Tuesday was primary day in Ohio and Illinois, and in the biggest contest of the day, Republicans chose former President Donald Trump's endorsee Bernie Moreno as their candidate in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. It was a good night for other Trump endorsees too, as Derek Merrin prevailed in the GOP primary for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, while incumbent Mike Bost is leading his challenger in Illinois's 12th District, as of early Wednesday morning. Plus, a special election in California could have immediate implications for House Republicans’ razor-thin majority.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Since the 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, abortion has been a major issue in U.S. politics — usually to Democrats’ benefit. Many Republicans have taken anti-abortion stances that are unpopular with the general public (though perhaps not with a GOP primary electorate).
In order to track how those candidates fare this year, we at 538 are keeping a list of every Senate, House and gubernatorial candidate this year who presents themself as an opponent of abortion. There’s no perfect way to measure this, but we’re doing so by searching campaign websites for the phrases “pro-life,” “sanctity of life,” “right to life,” “no abortion,” “against abortion” and “unborn” (excluding candidates who say these things but also say that abortion policy should be left to the states). Throughout the year, we’ll be tracking how these candidates fare in both primaries and the general election. Here’s a list of those who are on the ballot today.
Moreno viewed more favorably by strong Republicans in Ohio
Among registered Ohio voters who identify as Republicans, Moreno’s image is a bit more favorable than the other candidates among voters that identify as “strong Republicans,” but weaker among “not very strong Republicans.” In a SurveyUSA/Ohio Northern University poll published last week, voters were asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of various politicians. Among strong Republicans, Moreno had net +26 favorability, while LaRose and Dolan were each at net +20 percent favorability. Among not very strong Republicans, Dolan was in the lead with net +12 favorability, compared to LaRose at +9 and Moreno at +5.
Polls show a close race in the GOP primary for Ohio Senate
Democrats (and allied independents) currently hold a bare majority in the U.S. Senate, with 51 seats to Republicans’ 49. But control of the chamber is at stake in November, and the Senate race in Ohio is one of a few competitive contests that could decide control of the chamber.
Three Republican contenders are facing off today for a chance to challenge incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown in that contest: Matt Dolan, a state legislator running with the endorsement of former Ohio Sen. Rob Portman; Frank LaRose, the current Ohio Secretary of State running on a campaign of conservatism and electability; and Bernie Moreno, a businessman with endorsements from Trump, a dozen members of Congress including Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and the Club for Growth PAC, one of the oldest conservative PACs in the country.
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump greets Ohio Republican candidate for Senate, Bernie Moreno during a rally, Mar. 16, 2024, in Vandalia, Ohio.
Scott Olson/Getty Images
Moreno, who appeared alongside Trump in several campaign events this past weekend, has gained significant ground in the polls since the former president endorsed him in mid-December. Then, he was polling at 16 percent in 538’s polling average — and now he’s hovering in the mid- to-high-20s. Democrats view Moreno as the weakest candidate for the general election and last week began airing a television ad intended to boost his standing by “attacking” his conservative record and support for Trump ahead of Tuesday's primary.
But the polls show a tied race between Dolan and Moreno, who each lead LaRose by 10 percentage points. That’s too close for polls to provide a reliable signal of who is decisively leading: Per our database of historical polls, surveys of Senate primaries miss the margin between the winner and runner-up by 6.5 points on average.
538's final average of the 2024 Ohio Senate Republican primary race.
538 Photo Illustration
Looking ahead to the general election, the winner of today’s Republican primary matters not just in deciding who might be Ohio’s next senator, but in deciding control of the Senate come 2025. Since West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin decided to retire, prognosticators largely expect the Republicans to pick up at least one seat this November. That means Democrats and Republicans start their fight for the majority from a 50-50 tie, and Democrats need to at least hold on to the rest of their endangered seats — and for Biden to win — to maintain control.
Ohio is a red state, but Brown has managed to run ahead of expectations in previous cycles. So has fellow endangered Democrat, Montana Sen. Jon Tester. But neither of them have run in a presidential cycle since 2012, when President Barack Obama pulled off a surprising reelection and Democrats gained two seats in the Senate. Brown will face not just the strength of his opponent in November, but the partisanship of his constituents. The Cook Political Report rates the Ohio Senate race a toss-up.
The general election campaign has only just begun, and already the presidential candidates are trying to crowd us out of the polling analysis business. At a recent campaign stop, Biden suggested the polls showing him losing to Trump nationally and in all the major battleground states may not be accurate because it takes “six zillion calls to get one person on their cell phone.”
In the latest installment of the 538 Politics podcast we assess whether Biden has a point and what we should make of general election polls seven and a half months out from voting. We also look back at a viral YouGov poll that showed 20 percent of young Americans believe the Holocaust is a myth. It turned out to likely be entirely bogus. Plus, we tackle the main event of the evening — the Republican Senate race in Ohio.
If you want to take a listen while we wait for results to come in, smash the play button below!
