Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate wins Ohio primary

One under-the-radar race today is the Republican primary in Ohio’s 2nd District, which is tantamount to that seat’s general election given how red this seat is. Eleven Republicans are vying to replace retiring Rep. Brad Wenstrup, but three businessmen have used their wallets to stand out from the crowd. Concrete business owner David Taylor has loaned his own campaign $1.7 million, while Larry Kidd, who owns a hiring agency, has invested $1.3 million in the race. Meanwhile, Dunkin’ Donuts and LaRosa’s Pizzeria franchisee Tim O’Hara has spun up the third-most dough after self-funding $1.2 million.

Two state legislators are also running. State Sen. Niraj Antani has raised a respectable $671,000, but his district doesn’t overlap at all with the 2nd District, according to Daily Kos. State Sen. Shane Wilkin, by contrast, already represents 33 percent of the 2nd District, but he has raised only $146,000. If we had to pick a favorite here, it would probably be Taylor given that he has the most money and he’s the only major candidate from Clermont County, by far the most vote-rich county in the district. There are no runoffs in Ohio, so whoever finishes first in the primary will become the nominee even if they win just a bare plurality.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

In the past three elections women have set records for representation in Congress, and when the 118th Congress was sworn in last January they held 28 percent of seats, the highest percentage ever. Of course, Vice President Kamala Harris holds the highest federal office a woman has ever held, and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley became the first Republican woman to win a GOP nominating contest this year when she won the races in Washington, D.C., and Vermont. Whether and how women continue to make progress in this election cycle is still being decided this primary season.

Across the primaries in Illinois and Ohio, 17 Democratic women are running for seats in Congress, including nine incumbents.

That list includes some big races. Among them is the race for Illinois’s 7th Congressional District, which includes parts of Chicago, where 28-year incumbent Democratic Rep. Danny Davis’s two biggest challengers are women. As Kaleigh mentioned earlier, his biggest threat is Kina Collins, a progressive activist who challenged Davis in 2020 and 2022, running to his left on issues like gun violence prevention and health care reform. She came within 7 percentage points of Davis in 2022, earning 46 percent of the vote to his 52, and has a higher profile this year and more funding from national groups. Another major candidate is Melissa Conyears-Ervin, who’s now serving as Chicago’s treasurer and has been endorsed by the Chicago teacher’s union. Conyears-Evans also faces an ethics probe after firing whistleblowers who accused her of ethics violations and misuse of public resources. Both women are attacking Davis’s age — he is 82 — while Davis says his constituents benefit from his seniority.

—Monica Potts, 538

Two members of Congress, a Democrat from a deep blue seat and a Republican from a deep red one, are facing challenges in their primary races tonight. Both are leading in the polls for their respective races, but not enough to deem these elections all sewn up. You can read more about these races and others worth watching tonight in Ohio and California in our preview from yesterday, but here are the deets on the two potential dethronings in the Land of Lincoln.

When 82-year-old Democratic Rep. Danny Davis was first elected in the 7th District around Chicago, Kina Collins — the progressive challenger giving Davis a run for his seat tonight — wasn’t even old enough to vote. There are three other candidates in the race too — one, Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, has outraised both Collins and Davis — but Collins, a community organizer and gun-control advocate, is probably the incumbent’s steepest competition. She came within 7 points of ousting Davis in 2022. However, Davis has the backing of Illinois’s Democratic elite, including Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, and was leading in a poll from December, so it may not be curtains for the congressman just yet.

Meanwhile, southern Illinois’s 12th District also has an exciting race as Republican Rep. Mike Bost faces off against former state Sen. Darren Bailey, the Republican nominee for governor in 2022. In this district, the reddest in the state, Bailey and Bost have been flaunting their conservative bona fides in an attempt to out-MAGA one another and prove who is further right. Both candidates were endorsed by Trump in 2022, and both have deeply conservative views on issues like abortion, immigration and guns. In this race, Trump has endorsed Bost. Still, the two are polling closely, and whoever wins this primary will be all but guaranteed a seat in Congress, so it’s definitely one to keep an eye on.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Since the 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, abortion has been a major issue in U.S. politics — usually to Democrats’ benefit. Many Republicans have taken anti-abortion stances that are unpopular with the general public (though perhaps not with a GOP primary electorate).

In order to track how those candidates fare this year, we at 538 are keeping a list of every Senate, House and gubernatorial candidate this year who presents themself as an opponent of abortion. There’s no perfect way to measure this, but we’re doing so by searching campaign websites for the phrases “pro-life,” “sanctity of life,” “right to life,” “no abortion,” “against abortion” and “unborn” (excluding candidates who say these things but also say that abortion policy should be left to the states). Throughout the year, we’ll be tracking how these candidates fare in both primaries and the general election. Here’s a list of those who are on the ballot today.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538