Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate wins Ohio primary

It’s been a tough few years for old-guard establishment Republicans in Ohio. In the 2022 Senate primary, former state GOP chairwoman Jane Timken received a paltry 5.9 percent, even though she was endorsed by numerous GOP heavyweights, including then-incumbent Sen. Rob Portman. That same year, incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine, who is notably more moderate than many of his fellow Ohio Republicans, garnered less than 50 percent of the vote in his own primary against three challengers from the right.

While old-guard and moderate Republicans have still managed to hold onto some of the political reins of power in the state, their wins have frequently relied on support from more Democratic areas. Tonight’s Senate primary results will be an important test for them: This year, Portman and DeWine have both endorsed Dolan, while a phalanx of right-wing figures, including Trump, have thrown their weight behind Moreno. If Dolan can pull out a win, it would be a crucial victory for a group that has seemingly become an endangered species in the state.

—Cooper Burton, 538

On the Republican side, Rep. Mary Miller is the only female incumbent on the ballot tonight. She’s uncontested in her primary and likely to hold onto her deep-red seat in the 15th District in central Illinois. Four other Illinois women are running to be the Republican nominees in deep-blue districts around Chicago. Two of them are running unopposed in the primary, but should any of them win, they’re almost certain to lose in November.

In Ohio, most of the women on the ballot face long odds to victory tonight, including Kim Georgeton, running in a crowded open race for the solidly Republican 2nd District; Elayne Cross, one of two candidates challenging 14th District incumbent Rep. Dave Joyce from the right; and Kay Rogers, a former Butler County auditor who resigned in 2008 and spent two years in prison after pleading guilty to conspiracy to commit bank and mail fraud, is taking on incumbent Rep. Warren Davidson in the 8th District.

—Monica Potts, 538

One under-the-radar race today is the Republican primary in Ohio’s 2nd District, which is tantamount to that seat’s general election given how red this seat is. Eleven Republicans are vying to replace retiring Rep. Brad Wenstrup, but three businessmen have used their wallets to stand out from the crowd. Concrete business owner David Taylor has loaned his own campaign $1.7 million, while Larry Kidd, who owns a hiring agency, has invested $1.3 million in the race. Meanwhile, Dunkin’ Donuts and LaRosa’s Pizzeria franchisee Tim O’Hara has spun up the third-most dough after self-funding $1.2 million.

Two state legislators are also running. State Sen. Niraj Antani has raised a respectable $671,000, but his district doesn’t overlap at all with the 2nd District, according to Daily Kos. State Sen. Shane Wilkin, by contrast, already represents 33 percent of the 2nd District, but he has raised only $146,000. If we had to pick a favorite here, it would probably be Taylor given that he has the most money and he’s the only major candidate from Clermont County, by far the most vote-rich county in the district. There are no runoffs in Ohio, so whoever finishes first in the primary will become the nominee even if they win just a bare plurality.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

In the past three elections women have set records for representation in Congress, and when the 118th Congress was sworn in last January they held 28 percent of seats, the highest percentage ever. Of course, Vice President Kamala Harris holds the highest federal office a woman has ever held, and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley became the first Republican woman to win a GOP nominating contest this year when she won the races in Washington, D.C., and Vermont. Whether and how women continue to make progress in this election cycle is still being decided this primary season.

Across the primaries in Illinois and Ohio, 17 Democratic women are running for seats in Congress, including nine incumbents.

That list includes some big races. Among them is the race for Illinois’s 7th Congressional District, which includes parts of Chicago, where 28-year incumbent Democratic Rep. Danny Davis’s two biggest challengers are women. As Kaleigh mentioned earlier, his biggest threat is Kina Collins, a progressive activist who challenged Davis in 2020 and 2022, running to his left on issues like gun violence prevention and health care reform. She came within 7 percentage points of Davis in 2022, earning 46 percent of the vote to his 52, and has a higher profile this year and more funding from national groups. Another major candidate is Melissa Conyears-Ervin, who’s now serving as Chicago’s treasurer and has been endorsed by the Chicago teacher’s union. Conyears-Evans also faces an ethics probe after firing whistleblowers who accused her of ethics violations and misuse of public resources. Both women are attacking Davis’s age — he is 82 — while Davis says his constituents benefit from his seniority.

—Monica Potts, 538