538 tracked key House and Senate races, including a California special election.
November’s presidential matchup may be set, but Democrats and Republicans still need to decide who will run in hundreds of downballot races (e.g., for Senate and House) this fall. A batch of these contests were decided on Tuesday, March 19.
Tuesday was primary day in Ohio and Illinois, and in the biggest contest of the day, Republicans chose former President Donald Trump's endorsee Bernie Moreno as their candidate in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. It was a good night for other Trump endorsees too, as Derek Merrin prevailed in the GOP primary for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, while incumbent Mike Bost is leading his challenger in Illinois's 12th District, as of early Wednesday morning. Plus, a special election in California could have immediate implications for House Republicans’ razor-thin majority.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
The Associated Press has called the GOP Senate primary in Ohio for Moreno, though ABC News has not yet made a projection. He currently leads with about 42 percent of the vote, and 25 percent of the expected vote reporting.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Cooper, I wonder how much the potential threat of limiting abortion access in Ohio could impact that Supreme Court race. In 2023, voters in the state passed a constitutional amendment protecting abortion access. In a sign that abortion may continue to be an issue that divides Republican-leaning voters, a November Emerson College/WJW-TV/Nexstar survey conducted just after that election asked registered Ohio voters how they voted on the abortion measure and how they plan to vote in November this year.
Twenty-six percent of those who voted to pass the abortion rights measure said they plan to vote for Donald Trump, suggesting that a fair number of Republican or Republican-leaning voters supported it. (In comparison, just 10 percent of those who voted against the measure said they planned to vote for Joe Biden.) Abortion also seemed to drive turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in last November's election: Among those that said they voted on the abortion referendum (either for or against), 41 percent said they'd vote for Biden, while only 28 percent of those who didn't vote supported Biden. (About half of both 2023 voters and nonvoters supported Trump.)
So if the issue of abortion becomes salient in the state Supreme Court race, there could be a close race coming our way in November.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
With 34 percent of the expected vote in, incumbent Davis is well in the lead with 53 percent of the vote so far. His two top challengers, Conyears-Ervin and Collins, are nearly even for second place with 21 percent and 18 percent of the vote, respectively. Four Democrats ran in the primary against Davis in this deep blue district that includes parts of Chicago's west side; Davis has held the seat for 28 years. Collins has run to his left twice before and has been endorsed by progressive groups.
—Monica Potts, 538
In the Ohio Senate race, Moreno leads Dolan 40 percent to 37 percent with 21 percent of the expected vote reporting, but I'd make him a stronger favorite than that close margin suggests. Much of the vote tallied so far is from early and absentee votes, which are probably more favorable to Dolan. We've seen in previous elections that votes cast on Election Day tend to be better for more Trump-aligned candidates, which should benefit Moreno as Ohio starts to count more of those votes. For instance, around this hour of the evening in Ohio's 2022 Senate primary, Vance led with a tad less than 28 percent with a similar share of the vote reporting, but he wound up winning with 32 percent. That was a more crowded race, but you'd rather be Moreno at this point than Dolan.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
