Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate wins Ohio primary

538 tracked key House and Senate races, including a California special election.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: March 19, 2024, 5:29 PM EDT

November’s presidential matchup may be set, but Democrats and Republicans still need to decide who will run in hundreds of downballot races (e.g., for Senate and House) this fall. A batch of these contests were decided on Tuesday, March 19.

Tuesday was primary day in Ohio and Illinois, and in the biggest contest of the day, Republicans chose former President Donald Trump's endorsee Bernie Moreno as their candidate in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. It was a good night for other Trump endorsees too, as Derek Merrin prevailed in the GOP primary for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, while incumbent Mike Bost is leading his challenger in Illinois's 12th District, as of early Wednesday morning. Plus, a special election in California could have immediate implications for House Republicans’ razor-thin majority.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing.
Monica Potts Image
ByMonica Potts
Mar 19, 2024, 10:11 PM EDT

Merrin projected to win in Ohio's 9th

Merrin, the last-minute addition to the race, is projected to win the primary in Ohio's 9th District, according to ABC News. He will face incumbent Kaptor. Despite her incumbency, the seat could be tough for the long-serving Democrat to hold onto. As Nathaniel wrote earlier, Republicans in the state redrew the district to make it more Republican. But finding the right candidate has been tough for them: They'll be holding out hope that Merrin, who's been involved in his own intraparty battles in the state, will win this November.

—Monica Potts, 538

ByMary Radcliffe
Mar 19, 2024, 10:03 PM EDT

Former deputy Democratic leader ousted in the Illinois state House

In Illinois’s 31st state House District, a battle has been brewing between longtime state representative Mary Flowers and state House Speaker Chris Welch. Flowers was the deputy Democratic leader of the chamber from 2020-2023, but was stripped of her leadership position in May 2023 after allegations of abusive conduct toward other members and staff. This year, Speaker Welch led an effort to oust her from the chamber, directing hundreds of thousands of dollars toward her challenger, Michael Crawford, and encouraging outside groups, particularly unions, to support Crawford.

The effort appears to have paid off: Crawford, an educator and political newcomer, is projected to win, according to the Associated Press. He leads the 19-term congresswoman 70-30 with 64 percent of the vote reporting.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Jacob Rubashkin Image
ByJacob Rubashkin
Mar 19, 2024, 9:50 PM EDT

Bost holding his own

In Illinois' 12th District, Bost is ahead of challenger Bailey by 10 percentage points, 55 to 45 percent, with 36 percent of the expected vote in. But there's still a lot of vote to be counted in the eastern part of the district, where Bailey is stronger.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

ByCooper Burton
Mar 19, 2024, 9:42 PM EDT

An embattled county prosecutor in Ohio is hanging onto his seat

In Cuyahoga County, Ohio, home to Cleveland, incumbent Prosecutor Michael O'Malley is fending off a strong challenger from the left, former public defender Matthew Ahn. O'Malley has been criticized for a string of wrongful convictions and death sentences, but currently leads Ahn 64 to 36 percent, with 20 percent of ballot scanners in the county reporting, according to the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections.

—Cooper Burton, 538

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