Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

Twenty-eight percent of likely Iowa Republican voters said that the endorsement of Haley by Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity made them less likely to vote for her, compared with 10 percent who said the endorsement made them more likely to vote for her, according to a mid-December survey from Emerson College. The remaining 62 percent said the endorsement made no difference.

In a mid-December survey from Emerson College, 60 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa said that Gov. Kim Reynolds's endorsement of DeSantis did not make a difference to their vote. Seventeen percent said it made them more likely to vote for DeSantis, but 24 percent said it made them less likely to vote for him.

It's not just the polls that say Trump is the overwhelming front-runner for the GOP nomination; endorsements bode well for him too. Through Sunday, Trump had been endorsed for president by nine governors, 24 senators and 116 representatives, including House Speaker Mike Johnson. He had a 660-to-51 lead over DeSantis in our endorsement tracker, which weights endorsements by how high of an office the endorser holds.

The candidate with the most endorsement points on the day before the Iowa caucuses has won 11 of the 17 incumbent-less nominating contests since 1972. That's an even stronger track record than the national polling leader on the day before the Iowa caucuses, who's won 10 of those times.

But actually, Trump's odds are even better than that. He doesn't just have the most endorsement points; he has a historically large number of them. In fact, he has captured 33 percent of the total endorsement points that are available. Only four other non-incumbents since 1972 have done that at this point in the cycle: Hillary Clinton in 2016, George W. Bush and Al Gore in 2000 and Bob Dole in 1996. All four won their party's nomination.

With close to tundra-like temperatures in Iowa in recent days, candidates are relying on their ground game to both convince voters to turn out and to convince them to back their chosen candidate once they get there.

Given the intricate rules of the Iowa caucuses, which aren't at all like traditional primaries, ground organizing could be an important factor in the results.

Trump has more than 2,000 "precinct captains" — which is at least one person for the 1,657 caucus precincts where votes will be cast. His campaign has hosted more than 400 caucus trainings across the state over the months of campaigning and has collected more than 50,000 caucus commitment cards. His team also plans on having at least one speaker represent it at each of the precincts, a testament to the more professional organization Trump has put together this cycle versus his first run in 2016.

DeSantis, meanwhile, has more than 1,700 precinct captains, and Never Back Down, the main super PAC supporting him, has held 85-plus precinct captain trainings. Never Back Down has also knocked on more than 935,000 doors and collected almost 40,000 caucus commitment cards. DeSantis and Never Back Down combined have made Iowa a top priority, investing heavily in an extensive campaign infrastructure — though one that hasn't been able to stop his slide to third in some polls.

Haley, meanwhile, has not disclosed how many precinct captains her campaign has. She has largely let groups linked to the Koch-backed Americans For Prosperity establish a supportive campaign infrastructure in Iowa.

Vivek Ramaswamy has nearly 1,000 precinct captains. He, too, has made Iowa a huge priority — visiting each of its 99 counties twice, though he still remains in a distant fourth in most surveys in the state.