Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

It's no surprise that given Iowa's prominent position in the presidential primary lineup, it has so far attracted a disproportionate amount of TV ad spending in the GOP primary. There's been about $124 million spent on TV ads in Iowa by Republicans, according to tracking firm AdImpact. That's a little less than half of all the money spent by Republicans in the election nationwide ($271 million). The top spender in Iowa is Stand For America, the super PAC supporting Nikki Haley — they've spent $31 million, and much of that money has come late in the game. Three DeSantis-supporting groups combine for $32 million, while Trump's super PAC has spent just $11 million on ads (not bad for a guy up more than 30 points in the polls). Candidates get more favorable ad rates than super PACs, and among the active candidates themselves, Trump is the top Iowa spender at $7 million, followed by Haley at $4.9 million. DeSantis himself actually spent comparatively little in the Hawkeye State: just $3 million. For perspective, that's less than no-name self-funding candidate Ryan Binkley has spent on TV in the state.

Twenty-eight percent of likely Iowa Republican voters said that the endorsement of Haley by Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity made them less likely to vote for her, compared with 10 percent who said the endorsement made them more likely to vote for her, according to a mid-December survey from Emerson College. The remaining 62 percent said the endorsement made no difference.

In a mid-December survey from Emerson College, 60 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa said that Gov. Kim Reynolds's endorsement of DeSantis did not make a difference to their vote. Seventeen percent said it made them more likely to vote for DeSantis, but 24 percent said it made them less likely to vote for him.

It's not just the polls that say Trump is the overwhelming front-runner for the GOP nomination; endorsements bode well for him too. Through Sunday, Trump had been endorsed for president by nine governors, 24 senators and 116 representatives, including House Speaker Mike Johnson. He had a 660-to-51 lead over DeSantis in our endorsement tracker, which weights endorsements by how high of an office the endorser holds.

The candidate with the most endorsement points on the day before the Iowa caucuses has won 11 of the 17 incumbent-less nominating contests since 1972. That's an even stronger track record than the national polling leader on the day before the Iowa caucuses, who's won 10 of those times.

But actually, Trump's odds are even better than that. He doesn't just have the most endorsement points; he has a historically large number of them. In fact, he has captured 33 percent of the total endorsement points that are available. Only four other non-incumbents since 1972 have done that at this point in the cycle: Hillary Clinton in 2016, George W. Bush and Al Gore in 2000 and Bob Dole in 1996. All four won their party's nomination.