Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

Sarah McCammon of NPR was with Haley as she addressed supporters in Adel, Iowa, tonight, and said Haley supporters are still hoping there's an opening for someone who isn't Trump to win the Republican nomination. It got me thinking about how strongly Trump defines this race, whether caucusgoers want to vote for or against him. That's what I'll be thinking about as we watch this first contest of 2024 play out. We're in an unusual situation: Many Republicans view Trump almost as an incumbent. If he wins the nominating contest he'll probably face another incumbent in Biden, who likewise seems to have his party's nomination locked in. Because of Trump's continued popularity, opponents like Haley and DeSantis have been reluctant to criticize Trump too much, which leaves them a bit at a loss when they're trying to convince supporters to choose them over the frontrunner. McCammon said Haley called Trump the right candidate in 2016 but said he's sewn "chaos" since then. Chaos might be a nice word for everything that happened after Trump lost to Biden in 2020 and the criminal charges the former president still faces. As we head into what increasingly looks like a potential rematch, it's hard not to wonder if more chaos will ensue.

There's been a lot of talk about whether any candidates will have an unexpectedly strong showing tonight and make the race more competitive. But these early contests usually play a different role: winnowing. Candidates who make it this far tend to hold out for a few more bites at the apple, with Super Tuesday marking a big winnowing moment. But there are always candidates who are depending on a strong showing in Iowa to save their candidacies, sometimes for geographic or ideological reasons. And these candidates sometimes treat Iowa as their cue to exit.

In 2016, Martin O'Malley left the Democratic race after results in Iowa confirmed that he wasn't much of a contender next to Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Republican Mike Huckabee also dropped out in 2016 after a disappointing performance, especially compared to his 2008 strength in the evangelical stronghold. In 2012, Minnesota Republican Michele Bachmann ended her campaign after coming in sixth — damaged not only by Iowa's critical role for lesser-known candidates, but also by the presumption that, because of the similarities with her neighboring home state, Iowa should have been friendly territory. In 2008, the Iowa caucuses seemed like they should have been a strong area for Democrat John Edwards, who campaigned extensively there with an economic populist message. But he came in second to Barack Obama, whose campaign presented the victory as a major statement about his broader electoral appeal, and stayed in the race for just a few more weeks. And then there was the famous "Dean scream" the night of the 2004 Democratic caucuses, after Howard Dean's Iowa support failed to live up to the excitement around his candidacy. This might not have doomed his presidential bid right away — he left the race after finishing third in Wisconsin — but it probably didn't help.

Based on preliminary, early entrance poll data, Trump has a "strong lead," based on ABC News's early characterization of the race. This is not a projection, but suggests the former president has an edge, as was expected.

It's no surprise that given Iowa's prominent position in the presidential primary lineup, it has so far attracted a disproportionate amount of TV ad spending in the GOP primary. There's been about $124 million spent on TV ads in Iowa by Republicans, according to tracking firm AdImpact. That's a little less than half of all the money spent by Republicans in the election nationwide ($271 million). The top spender in Iowa is Stand For America, the super PAC supporting Nikki Haley — they've spent $31 million, and much of that money has come late in the game. Three DeSantis-supporting groups combine for $32 million, while Trump's super PAC has spent just $11 million on ads (not bad for a guy up more than 30 points in the polls). Candidates get more favorable ad rates than super PACs, and among the active candidates themselves, Trump is the top Iowa spender at $7 million, followed by Haley at $4.9 million. DeSantis himself actually spent comparatively little in the Hawkeye State: just $3 million. For perspective, that's less than no-name self-funding candidate Ryan Binkley has spent on TV in the state.