Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

Who will benefit from cold-induced low turnout? I'm not actually sure. Trump seems like the simplest answer. There are a couple of ways to think about this — it seems intuitive that the cold could be more of a deterrent for older voters, but I don't know that there's much evidence for that. The other consideration is whether one of the candidates is more dependent on low-propensity voters — those with less consistent voting histories. Historically, these voters have been Trump's bread and butter.

Trump might benefit from low turnout, but I've also been thinking about Trump's support from first-time caucusgoers. Will they stick with it and show up? He's also traditionally relied on support in rural areas, and I wonder if there will be travel concerns on unplowed back roads. At the same time, he has the enthusiasm, as others have noted.

I agree that Trump is probably the beneficiary of the extreme cold given how devoted his supporters are, but I wonder also if Haley will disproportionately lose out. There’s been a lot of reporting about how she’s been attracting some support from independents and even Democrats. If you’re a Democrat trying to make a Haley bank shot, I feel like you’re probably less likely to venture out in this weather than someone with a greater connection and obligation to the Republican Party. It’s probably a small slice of potential caucus-goers, but it could make a difference.

That’s true, Monica, Haley supporters are particularly unenthusiastic about a potential Trump nomination. In the latest Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa poll, 54 percent of likely caucusgoers who said they would caucus for Haley also said it would be nearly impossible for Trump to win against Biden given his legal challenges, compared to only 23 percent of caucusgoers overall.

But strikingly, most of Haley’s supporters said they wouldn’t support Trump in the general anyway. While 71 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers overall said they’ll vote for Trump in November if the race is between Trump, Biden and Kennedy, just 23 percent of Haley supporters would vote for the former president. Forty-three percent said they would choose Biden, while the rest said they would choose Kennedy or another third-party candidate, would not vote or were not sure.

So if she does well tonight, I wonder if we’ll see her less reluctant to criticize Trump in the future, since it may not be that detrimental to her base of support.