Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

Only 30 minutes into the evening, and we already have a projected winner. Yet in a slightly perverse fashion, we — and everyone else — are going to be sticking around for a while yet to see who finishes in second, which will have profound implications for the futures of the DeSantis and Haley campaigns (if not who actually wins the nomination). It’s kind of a weird spot to be in, though, considering that major news outlets won’t officially be projecting a second-place finisher. We election analysts will have to eyeball it.

ABC News projects that Trump will win the Iowa Republican caucuses. This surprises absolutely no one, given that Trump had a more than 30-point lead in 538's Iowa polling average heading into tonight's event. However, the drama tonight wasn't about Trump's outcome, but second place: Can Haley jump ahead of DeSantis and set herself up for a nice result ahead of New Hampshire's primary, where she's stronger? Or will DeSantis pull off a comeback story of sorts by grabbing the silver medal? Stay tuned!

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Trump projected to win Iowa caucus

ABC News projects Donald Trump will win the Iowa caucus based on entrance polling after Trump had a nearly 30-point polling lead heading into the caucus.

ABCNews.com

Who will benefit from cold-induced low turnout? I'm not actually sure. Trump seems like the simplest answer. There are a couple of ways to think about this — it seems intuitive that the cold could be more of a deterrent for older voters, but I don't know that there's much evidence for that. The other consideration is whether one of the candidates is more dependent on low-propensity voters — those with less consistent voting histories. Historically, these voters have been Trump's bread and butter.

Trump might benefit from low turnout, but I've also been thinking about Trump's support from first-time caucusgoers. Will they stick with it and show up? He's also traditionally relied on support in rural areas, and I wonder if there will be travel concerns on unplowed back roads. At the same time, he has the enthusiasm, as others have noted.