Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

I’m not sure, Julia. In ABC News’ preliminary entrance poll data, only 2 percent of caucusgoers said they identify as Democrats. That doesn’t seem like enough to really change the state of things, especially since we can’t be sure that all of those voters will caucus for the same candidate.

Looking at the preliminary entrance poll data from another angle, 87 percent of caucusgoers identified as conservative, compared with 13 percent who identified as liberal or moderate. So I think we can expect that this isn’t going to be the race where crossover voters make a big impact. Perhaps next week… ??

There’s some talk about whether Democrats in Iowa have changed their party registration to vote in tonight’s caucus, specifically for Nikki Haley. The impact of this kind of crossover voting — especially in states where it’s relatively easy to do so — is probably one of those mythical things that political junkies really like to talk about, but doesn’t make much difference. For it to matter, a lot of people would have to cross over, or it would have to be a very close race between two candidates — or both. But if there have ever been perfect conditions for it, it’s this year, with not much of a primary race on the Democratic side and a lot of strong feelings among Democrats about the Republican frontrunner, Donald Trump.

Only 30 minutes into the evening, and we already have a projected winner. Yet in a slightly perverse fashion, we — and everyone else — are going to be sticking around for a while yet to see who finishes in second, which will have profound implications for the futures of the DeSantis and Haley campaigns (if not who actually wins the nomination). It’s kind of a weird spot to be in, though, considering that major news outlets won’t officially be projecting a second-place finisher. We election analysts will have to eyeball it.

ABC News projects that Trump will win the Iowa Republican caucuses. This surprises absolutely no one, given that Trump had a more than 30-point lead in 538's Iowa polling average heading into tonight's event. However, the drama tonight wasn't about Trump's outcome, but second place: Can Haley jump ahead of DeSantis and set herself up for a nice result ahead of New Hampshire's primary, where she's stronger? Or will DeSantis pull off a comeback story of sorts by grabbing the silver medal? Stay tuned!

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Trump projected to win Iowa caucus

ABC News projects Donald Trump will win the Iowa caucus based on entrance polling after Trump had a nearly 30-point polling lead heading into the caucus.

ABCNews.com