Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

Haley finishes 3rd, Ramaswamy drops out after finishing 4th.

By538 and ABC News via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: January 15, 2024, 5:15 PM EST

The first election of the 2024 presidential primaries is in the books, and former President Donald Trump was the big winner. ABC News projects that Trump finished first in the Iowa caucuses, about 30 percentage points ahead of second-place finisher Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is projected to finish third, while businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is projected to finish fourth. As a result, Ramaswamy has dropped out of the presidential race.

Throughout the night, 538 reporters broke down the results in Iowa in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing. All times Eastern.
ByMary Radcliffe
Jan 15, 2024, 9:56 PM EST

Iowa voters aren’t looking for payback

Interesting, Elliott! It seems like Trump’s focus on what happened in 2020 is not turning off Iowa voters. However, pre-election polling suggests it may not have been top of mind for most Iowa voters who were considering Trump in the caucuses. Only 40 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers who said they were considering caucusing for Trump said that payback for 2020 was among the reasons, which was the smallest share among the possible reasons listed in a December YouGov/CBS News survey. The reason chosen by the most voters, of the options presented, was that they think things were better under Trump, which 99 percent said was one of their reasons.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

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ByMeredith Conroy
Jan 15, 2024, 9:47 PM EST

Answer: Haley could have momentum

I agree that Trump's big win is the headline. I thought it would be closer and that a call would take longer. But if Haley can come in second, and then does well in New Hampshire, that could elevate her in a way that matters electorally, and narratively.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

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ByG. Elliott Morris
Jan 15, 2024, 9:45 PM EST

Answer: The magnitude of Trump's win confirms our priors about the primary

I think a second place for Haley would effectively kill the DeSantis campaign. That's news! DeSantis pinned a lot of his hopes on doing well in the state. But more importantly, I agree with Nathaniel: Trump's big win is the headline. CNN reported last week that the White House is frustrated that many voters do not seem to acknowledge that the general election is so likely to be Trump vs. Biden. Given that, covering Iowa for what it is (effectively the last indicator we needed that Trump is overwhelmingly likely to be the nominee) could correct some of those misperceptions.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

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ByJulia Azari
Jan 15, 2024, 9:33 PM EST

Could the anti-Trump GOP coalesce, just in case?

It seems like ancient history — eight years ago — but in 2016, with Ted Cruz winning first place and Marco Rubio coming in a close third after Trump, there was a brief moment when it looked like the party was trying to coalesce to some extent around Rubio as the non-Trump (and non-Cruz) alternative. This effort didn’t get very far, but I wonder if the same dynamic will come into play here, with most of the Republicans who have reservations about Trump coordinating around one of the other contenders.

— Julia Azari, 538 contributor