Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

Tia, I think the most likely case of either Haley or DeSantis coming out of tonight with momentum is if DeSantis stays ahead of Haley and he can spin a “comeback kid” narrative out of that. We know that the media (and voters!) love a comeback narrative, but the DeSantis campaign has just been one negative development after another for the past few months, so it’s been hard for him to get that narrative going. But look, we know that in certain corners of the GOP there’s a lot of money and interest in having a credible non-Trump candidate. Right now everyone seems to think that’s Haley, but if DeSantis can reclaim that mantle, he could be able to stick it out to Super Tuesday or beyond.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

I actually do think there's room for a non-Trump candidate still. Either Haley or DeSantis could try to craft a winning narrative out of a second-place showing. More than that, though, there's some appetite in the party for someone who isn't Trump. Combine that with the uncertainty of what will happen to Trump given the criminal cases against him, I think anything could happen. More than that, I think the 2016 election showed me that anything is possible, even the unexpected, so I'm trying to keep an open mind.
—Monica Potts, 538

Tia, I think it will, rightly, still matter to DeSantis or Haley whether they finish second tonight. But I think the main takeaway from tonight should definitely be Trump’s win, with second place relegated to a subheadline or something. Polling indicates that many Americans still aren’t aware (or are in denial, haha) of the fact that the 2024 general election will very likely be Trump versus Biden, and so we in the media need to make it clear how strong Trump is doing in the primary.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

By this point it should be dawning on readers that Trump is very, very likely to win the GOP nomination. Not only is he up big in the polls — by about 50 points, according to our average — but he has a very clear path to winning a majority of delegates to the Republican National Convention in July.

What we can now add some hard data to is the question of why. Preliminary entrance poll data from ABC News show that 66 percent of Iowa caucusgoers think Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 presidential election — the de-facto top issue of Trump's campaign. And 63 percent said that Trump is qualified to be president even if he's convicted of a crime (vs. 32 percent who said no). Given the significance of this issue to Trump and his voters, the split leaves little path to a majority for Haley — at least if this holds.

What's more, Haley's electability pitch — she keeps saying she's up 17 points on Biden in the general, which is not quite right — seems to have fallen flat. According to the preliminary entrance polls, just 12 percent of caucusgoers said that it was most important to them that a candidate "can defeat Joe Biden." By comparison, 74 percent said they wanted a candidate who "shares my values" or "fights for people like me." Trump is running, for all intents and purposes, as an incumbent president and presumptive nominee. No other candidate is going to beat him at the "candidate like me" game.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538