Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

I think a second place for Haley would effectively kill the DeSantis campaign. That's news! DeSantis pinned a lot of his hopes on doing well in the state. But more importantly, I agree with Nathaniel: Trump's big win is the headline. CNN reported last week that the White House is frustrated that many voters do not seem to acknowledge that the general election is so likely to be Trump vs. Biden. Given that, covering Iowa for what it is (effectively the last indicator we needed that Trump is overwhelmingly likely to be the nominee) could correct some of those misperceptions.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

It seems like ancient history — eight years ago — but in 2016, with Ted Cruz winning first place and Marco Rubio coming in a close third after Trump, there was a brief moment when it looked like the party was trying to coalesce to some extent around Rubio as the non-Trump (and non-Cruz) alternative. This effort didn’t get very far, but I wonder if the same dynamic will come into play here, with most of the Republicans who have reservations about Trump coordinating around one of the other contenders.

— Julia Azari, 538 contributor

I absolutely think Haley or DeSantis can still put together a winning narrative about tonight, based on whichever candidate finishes second. We all expected Trump to win, so there is nothing surprising about it. That will produce ho-hum headlines, whereas the fight for second could be more exciting. Haley could take a second-place finish and go to New Hampshire with positive coverage about that result — and besting DeSantis. Meanwhile, DeSantis could play up a "comeback kid" narrative if he grabs second after Haley seemingly had been the candidate on the upswing. This doesn't mean either has much of a chance of beating Trump for the Republican nomination, but either narrative could extend the race a bit, depending on how voters in the subsequent contests react.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Tia, I think the most likely case of either Haley or DeSantis coming out of tonight with momentum is if DeSantis stays ahead of Haley and he can spin a “comeback kid” narrative out of that. We know that the media (and voters!) love a comeback narrative, but the DeSantis campaign has just been one negative development after another for the past few months, so it’s been hard for him to get that narrative going. But look, we know that in certain corners of the GOP there’s a lot of money and interest in having a credible non-Trump candidate. Right now everyone seems to think that’s Haley, but if DeSantis can reclaim that mantle, he could be able to stick it out to Super Tuesday or beyond.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections