Haley finishes 3rd, Ramaswamy drops out after finishing 4th.
The first election of the 2024 presidential primaries is in the books, and former President Donald Trump was the big winner. ABC News projects that Trump finished first in the Iowa caucuses, about 30 percentage points ahead of second-place finisher Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is projected to finish third, while businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is projected to finish fourth. As a result, Ramaswamy has dropped out of the presidential race.
Throughout the night, 538 reporters broke down the results in Iowa in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
I agree that Trump's big win is the headline. I thought it would be closer and that a call would take longer. But if Haley can come in second, and then does well in New Hampshire, that could elevate her in a way that matters electorally, and narratively.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
I think a second place for Haley would effectively kill the DeSantis campaign. That's news! DeSantis pinned a lot of his hopes on doing well in the state. But more importantly, I agree with Nathaniel: Trump's big win is the headline. CNN reported last week that the White House is frustrated that many voters do not seem to acknowledge that the general election is so likely to be Trump vs. Biden. Given that, covering Iowa for what it is (effectively the last indicator we needed that Trump is overwhelmingly likely to be the nominee) could correct some of those misperceptions.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538
It seems like ancient history — eight years ago — but in 2016, with Ted Cruz winning first place and Marco Rubio coming in a close third after Trump, there was a brief moment when it looked like the party was trying to coalesce to some extent around Rubio as the non-Trump (and non-Cruz) alternative. This effort didn’t get very far, but I wonder if the same dynamic will come into play here, with most of the Republicans who have reservations about Trump coordinating around one of the other contenders.
— Julia Azari, 538 contributor
I absolutely think Haley or DeSantis can still put together a winning narrative about tonight, based on whichever candidate finishes second. We all expected Trump to win, so there is nothing surprising about it. That will produce ho-hum headlines, whereas the fight for second could be more exciting. Haley could take a second-place finish and go to New Hampshire with positive coverage about that result — and besting DeSantis. Meanwhile, DeSantis could play up a "comeback kid" narrative if he grabs second after Haley seemingly had been the candidate on the upswing. This doesn't mean either has much of a chance of beating Trump for the Republican nomination, but either narrative could extend the race a bit, depending on how voters in the subsequent contests react.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
