Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

To answer your question, Julia, maybe anti-Trump Republicans will coalesce around a single alternative this time (perhaps because they have no choice — it’s possible that DeSantis will drop out after tonight and Haley will be the only Trump critic left). But even if they do, I don’t think it will matter, simply because there are very few anti-Trump Republicans left in the party. Over the past eight years, that breed of Republican has largely limped into retirement or lost in primary or general elections, and the new GOP establishment that replaced them has lined up behind Trump’s campaign. He has more endorsements at this point in the cycle than all but a handful of past candidates.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Julia, I think 2024 is just such a different ballgame than 2016, because now most Republican primary voters like Trump and want him to be president. His image rating is a sky-high 78 percent favorable/19 percent unfavorable among Republicans.. Back in early 2016, he was not as popular — an ABC/Washington Post poll from 8 years ago pegged his favorability among Republicans at just 57 percent and falling. There was not only a sizable anti-Trump contingent in the party back then, one with a lot of establishment clout and resources, but also a sizable number of voters really didn’t want Trump to be the nominee. That’s gone, and with it I think any chance at strategic consolidation like Kasich, Cruz and Rubio tried in 2016.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

We now have 34 percent of the expected vote reporting in Iowa, and DeSantis leads Haley 20 percent to 19 percent for second place. Trump, of course, is way out in front with 52 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Interesting, Elliott! It seems like Trump’s focus on what happened in 2020 is not turning off Iowa voters. However, pre-election polling suggests it may not have been top of mind for most Iowa voters who were considering Trump in the caucuses. Only 40 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers who said they were considering caucusing for Trump said that payback for 2020 was among the reasons, which was the smallest share among the possible reasons listed in a December YouGov/CBS News survey. The reason chosen by the most voters, of the options presented, was that they think things were better under Trump, which 99 percent said was one of their reasons.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538