Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

Haley finishes 3rd, Ramaswamy drops out after finishing 4th.

By538 and ABC News via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: January 15, 2024, 5:15 PM EST

The first election of the 2024 presidential primaries is in the books, and former President Donald Trump was the big winner. ABC News projects that Trump finished first in the Iowa caucuses, about 30 percentage points ahead of second-place finisher Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is projected to finish third, while businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is projected to finish fourth. As a result, Ramaswamy has dropped out of the presidential race.

Throughout the night, 538 reporters broke down the results in Iowa in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing. All times Eastern.
Monica Potts Image
ByMonica Potts
Jan 15, 2024, 10:17 PM EST

Iowa Republicans do not care about the criminal charges against Trump

I wrote earlier that pre-caucus polling showed that Iowa Republicans didn't care about Trump's legal problems. ABC's Iowa entrance polls support that. Sixty-three percent of caucusgoers said Trump would be fit for office even if he were convicted. Seventy-one percent of that group voted for him. So to Julia's earlier question, I think part of the issue, as she noted, is that while there are some anti-Trump Republicans who want an alternative, a majority of Republicans left in the party don't think Trump did anything wrong, or that even if he did, he's not disqualified from future office.
—Monica Potts, 538

Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
Jan 15, 2024, 10:19 PM EST

Binkley or Burgum?

Tell that to North Dakota Gov. (and billionaire) Doug Burgum, Jacob …

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Jacob Rubashkin Image
ByJacob Rubashkin
Jan 15, 2024, 10:22 PM EST

Binkley’s millions

Nathaniel, Binkley spent good money for his 1 percent! Just over $3 million, according to AdImpact. I’m not sure what the cost per vote record is in Iowa, but I think he’s probably a contender. Maybe if he had spent $300 million he would have won in a landslide …
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
Jan 15, 2024, 10:17 PM EST

Who the heck is Ryan Binkley?

After Trump, DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy, the current fifth-place candidate in Iowa is not Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of the great state of Arkansas, but businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley, whom we at 538 don’t consider a major candidate. I actually interviewed Binkley last year as part of a video on what keeps long- or no-shot presidential candidates going.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538