While Iowa has a relatively small Black population overall (less than 4 percent of the total population, according to the latest American Community Survey estimates), Haley is doing a bit better than she is statewide in each of the three counties where Black individuals make up the largest share of the population.
With an estimated 34 percent of the vote reporting statewide, Trump has 52 percent, DeSantis 20 percent, and Haley 19 percent. But in Black Hawk County, the county with the largest Black population share (just under 10 percent), Trump has 54 percent of the vote, Haley has 21 percent and DeSantis has 16 percent, with an estimated 58 percent reporting. In Johnson County (7 percent Black), Trump is leading with 37 percent of the vote, Haley has 34 percent, and DeSantis has 22 percent, with an estimated 7 percent reporting. In Polk County, home to Des Moines and the state’s third-largest Black population share (7 percent), Trump has 41 percent, Haley has 30 percent, and DeSantis has 20 percent, with an estimated 12 percent reporting.
Of course, it’s still fairly early, so these numbers could shift as more precincts report their results and analysts get an opportunity to examine precinct-level results by racial composition. There could also be an education variable at play here: both Johnson and Polk counties are in the top 3 counties for college graduation. A potential race gap in the GOP primary has thus far been difficult to track in polling, given how small a share of the Republican primary electorate identifies as Black. And a race gap may come into play after New Hampshire, when the campaigns shift their focus to South Carolina, where almost 26 percent of the population identifies as Black.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
