New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

The 2016 Republican nomination race was a far more crowded affair, but the New Hampshire primary that year can still tell us something about tonight. Eight years ago, Trump won with just 35 percent of the vote, but he carried most cities and towns in the Granite State because the vote was heavily fragmented. (Like in much of New England, New Hampshire’s municipalities, not counties, are the more important administrative divisions.) Overall, six candidates won between 7 and 35 percent statewide, and the next-closest contender was John Kasich, who won only 16 percent.

Looking at the 2016 map, the areas that Trump carried with less than 40 percent — colored pink or light purple — will hold the key to tonight’s result. This is especially true of areas in the south-central to southeast portion of the state, which produced about three-fourths of the _total_ 2016 Republican primary vote. We’ll want to see to what degree Trump has won over Republicans in these areas — and just how many independent voters show up, as the polls suggest they are more likely to prefer Haley.

One key area to watch will be the Seacoast, New Hampshire’s southeastern corner. This part of the state has many affluent and highly-educated towns where Kasich ran just behind Trump, such as Portsmouth and Stratham. To have any chance of an upset, Haley will need to perform strongly here, and hope that the region’s Democratic-leaning independents decide to participate in the GOP primary (much of the area is strongly Democratic). Haley would also need to hold down Trump’s margins in the most vote-rich part of the state, the south-central Merrimack Valley, which includes New Hampshire’s two largest cities — Manchester and Nashua — while also making inroads in highly-educated towns in the same vicinity, such as Bedford and Amherst. At the same time, the southeastern part of this region was much more strongly pro-Trump in 2016, so the degree to which he can run up the score in places like Salem will be important.

Moving slightly north, the capital of Concord is solidly Democratic, but it still cast the third-most GOP primary votes after Manchester and Nashua in 2016. Trump won less than 30 percent there, so it’s another must-watch spot. To the northwest, the areas where we’d largely expect Haley to win — and she needs to win big — are highly-educated areas along the Connecticut River (the Vermont border) such as Lebanon and Hanover (home to Dartmouth College), which Kasich carried eight years ago.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

A Marist poll taken last week asked Granite Staters which of six issues were top of mind in the 2024 election. Thirty-two percent said “preserving democracy,” 26 percent said inflation, 18 percent said immigration, 6 percent said abortion, 3 percent said crime and 2 percent said health care. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, however, inflation topped the list, with 40 percent choosing that issue, followed by immigration at 33 percent. “Preserving democracy” was chosen by just 14 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Despite Trump being a favorite tonight, New Hampshire Republican voters are slightly more moderate than Iowa’s Republican caucusgoers, and those moderates prefer Haley. But while likely Republican primary voters are more moderate on issues like abortion, issue polling suggests that they align with their national party on key issues like immigration, the economy and foreign policy.

New Hampshire Republicans name immigration as a top concern, just like Republicans across the country. When asked to name the most important issues of the race, 59 percent of likely GOP primary voters said it was extremely important, and 25 selected it as the most important issue in a November Monmouth University/Washington Post poll. Ninety-two percent thought Biden’s immigration policy was a "more of a failure" than a success in an Emerson College/WHDH-TV poll.

Seventy-eight percent of likely Republican primary voters ranked jobs and the economy as one of their top three issues, and 40 percent ranked it as their top issue, in deciding who to vote for in a November University of New Hampshire/CNN poll. More specifically, inflation and rising prices closely followed immigration as a top issue in the Monmouth/Washington Post poll of potential Republican primary voters from November, with 58 percent saying it was an extremely important issue facing the country and 20 percent picking it as the single most important issue.

These two issues are no surprise, since Republicans have been naming the economy and immigration as top issues since the 2022 midterms. But an issue that’s risen in importance since Russia invaded Ukraine nearly two years ago, and especially since Hamas’s attacks on Israel Oct. 7, is foreign policy. That event appeared to boost foreign policy from a distant third place in September to second place when likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters ranked their top three issues in the UNH/CNN poll, with 57 percent placing it in their top three in November, up from 28 percent in September. And 90 percent of New Hampshire Republicans disapprove of Biden’s handling of foreign affairs in a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll from October.

No matter who wins tonight, New Hampshire voters seem to share the nationwide disapproval of Biden’s handling of important issues. That could give the eventual Republican nominee a chance in the state, despite its record of supporting Democrats for president in the last five elections.

—Monica Potts, 538

Primaries are a race for delegates, but the early primary states don’t actually have many delegates up for grabs. Their real value is in their potential to give favorable media coverage, and thus a polling boost, to candidates ahead of delegate-rich Super Tuesday. That’s why you hear so much about the importance of “beating expectations” in states like New Hampshire. But where should those expectations be set for each candidate? It’s subjective, but I’ll try to give you a data-driven idea.

For Trump, finishing first today would obviously be a win after the media hyped up New Hampshire as a competitive contest between him and Haley. Even a respectable second-place finish would be good news for Trump. According to our modeling, Trump needs to win only eight out of 22 delegates — about one-third of the vote — in New Hampshire to be on pace to win the nomination nationwide. (This is because New Hampshire is one of his worst states demographically.) That said, if Trump gets only 33 percent of the vote, he would probably get a bunch of bad headlines for underperforming his polls so badly. So let’s split the difference and say that Trump needs to win at least 40 percent of the vote — regardless of whether he finishes first or second — to be satisfied with the result in New Hampshire.

Meanwhile, if Haley wins New Hampshire, her team will try to chalk it up as a huge win. And in many ways, it would be: Apart from, you know, literally being a win, it would represent a significant overperformance of her polls (she currently trails Trump by 18 percentage points) and would surely give her a bunch of free media attention that could translate into votes in later states. That said, our modeling says that Haley needs to win all 22 of New Hampshire’s delegates in order to be on pace for the nomination nationwide, so even a regular-sized win in New Hampshire would be insufficient for her. And a second-place finish would be unambiguously bad news for her viability in the race, no matter how much her team tries to spin it.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538