New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

New Hampshire is one of the least religious states in the country. That might help explain why Trump’s closest competitor, Haley, has closed in on his lead a bit there: He’s at 54 percent to her 36 percent. While in 2016, evangelical Christians and regular churchgoers were reluctant to throw their support behind Trump, this key Republican voting bloc is now his solid base. And they’re missing in this first-in-the-nation primary.

In Iowa last week, Trump improved on his 2016 caucuses performance by 35 points in the most evangelical areas of the state, according to a Washington Post analysis. That’s just the latest evidence that evangelical voters are his to lose. In the 2020 general election, he won 59 percent of voters who attend church at least monthly, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. More than that, Trump moved many of his voters to identify as evangelical Christian, regardless of their church attendance habits.

Evangelicals remain one of the most motivated, active parts of the Republican Party nationwide, and, without that, Trump’s campaign might be missing a little steam. In addition to being less religious, New Hampshire residents have other identity markers that pull them further from Trump’s base. It’s one of the most educated states in the country, and has had an active Libertarian Party. In this respect, New Hampshire Republicans are a bit different from their fellow party members in other states. All of these factors might be giving Haley a small opening, but Trump is still favored to win.

Looking beyond that toward November, New Hampshire has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election save one since 1992. So while the eventual Republican nominee will have a shot, the less religious nature of New Hampshire might be a sign that the state is simply becoming more solidly Democratic like its New England neighbors, at least when it comes to presidential elections.

—Monica Potts, 538

In the latest Suffolk University/Boston Globe/NBC 10 Boston tracking poll, primary voters in New Hampshire who plan to vote for Trump were surer of their choice than voters for any other candidate. Eighty-one percent of Trump voters said they were not at all likely to change their mind, compared with 68 percent of Haley voters.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

According to data collected by 538’s Mary Radcliffe and Cooper Burton, through yesterday, Haley had held 77 public, in-person campaign events in New Hampshire since she jumped into the presidential race last February. By contrast, Trump held only 17 events in New Hampshire between yesterday and his campaign announcement in November 2022.

Those numbers hint at the very different approaches to campaigning that the two candidates have taken in New Hampshire. Haley has crisscrossed the state trying to meet — and personally convince — as many voters as possible, while Trump has largely eschewed retail politics, instead relying on his popularity and media attention to garner votes. (And it works for him — he won Iowa in dominating fashion despite not campaigning very much there, either.)

New Hampshire also accounts for a much greater share of Haley’s total campaign events (39 percent) than of Trump’s (17 percent) — or for that matter most of the dropped-out presidential candidates’. That’s a reflection of how central New Hampshire is to her hopes of winning the nomination. (She even suggested as much at one of her town halls there, when she declared that “Iowa starts” the presidential race, but voters in New Hampshire “correct it.”) She absolutely must win here to have a shot, and her campaign schedule has reflected that.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Last week I was in New Hampshire and sat down with Trump, DeSantis and Haley supporters to talk about why they’re voting for their chosen candidate. The Haley supporter, who voted for Biden in 2020, said that if Haley does not win the primary, she will vote for Biden or independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the fall. The DeSantis supporter told me he was committed to voting for Trump if he wins the primary, even if the former president is convicted of a felony before Election Day.

Immigration was the No. 1 issue for the Trump and DeSantis supporters, while leadership qualities were most important to the Haley supporter. Although these are only three people and not a representative sample like a poll, the themes I heard were reflective of the kinds of trends we’ve seen in issue polling in New Hampshire, which Monica has written about and mentioned earlier. If you want to hear straight from some New Hampshire voters themselves, check out the conversation here:

—Galen Druke, 538