New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

In 2016, New Hampshire bailed Trump out after a disappointing finish in Iowa. Trump lost the Iowa caucuses by 3 percentage points to Sen. Ted Cruz before going on to win the New Hampshire primary decisively, beating then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich by nearly 20 points.

This time around, Trump won Iowa with an outright majority, but polls suggest that the contest in New Hampshire may be closer, even if Trump wins. What changed?

For one, in the eight intervening years, Trump’s base of support has shifted in subtle but meaningful ways. In 2016, Trump was an insurgent candidate who was challenged on the right by Cruz. But having served as president, Trump now defines the party’s right wing, and he enjoys overwhelming support from some of the party’s core constituencies: evangelical Christians, people who identify as Republicans and older (white) voters. And those voters are more numerous in the Iowa caucuses than the New Hampshire primary, giving Haley more of a chance in New Hampshire than she had in Iowa.

For example, in 2016, Trump did equally well in New Hampshire with voters who identified as Republicans and voters who identified as independents. In fact, part of his 2016 appeal was to those who were somewhat disaffected with the two parties. But in Iowa last week, Trump did much better among Republicans (54 percent) than among independents (42 percent) — and many more Iowa caucusgoers were Republican identifiers (82 percent) than we are likely to see today in New Hampshire, where undeclared voters can participate.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

Most New Hampshire GOP primary voters believe that efforts to remove Trump from the ballot in other states are driven by partisan politics, according to a January survey from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center/CNN. Seventy-four percent said that partisan politics factored into the decision to remove Trump from Maine’s primary ballot “a lot” or “some.” Eight percent said it didn’t factor in very much, and 10 percent said it didn’t factor in at all.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

New Hampshire voters are choosing between Haley and Trump tonight, but it’s unclear whether their neighbors to the north in Maine will have a similar set of options when it comes time for them to vote. Maine secretary of state Shenna Bellows ruled that Trump could not appear on Maine’s primary ballot due to a 14th Amendment ban on those who have engaged in insurrection from holding office.

The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on a similar case in Colorado in early February, but in the meantime, we asked Granite Staters about their thoughts on the matter. According to a University of New Hampshire poll, 50 percent of New Hampshire voters support Bellows’s decision, while 42 percent oppose it. (Thirty-five percent said they understand the 14th Amendment provision very well, while 42 percent said they understand it only somewhat well.)

The reasons New Hampshire residents gave for their views on Trump’s removal from Maine’s primary ballot ran the gamut. Those who opposed it said that Trump did not engage in insurrection, was not responsible for Jan. 6 and at the very least has not been convicted of anything. Those who supported it still expressed some hesitation about the precedent that would be set by taking a candidate off the ballot, but said complying with the 14th Amendment outweighed those concerns. You can hear from them here:

—Galen Druke, 538

New Hampshire is one of the least religious states in the country. That might help explain why Trump’s closest competitor, Haley, has closed in on his lead a bit there: He’s at 54 percent to her 36 percent. While in 2016, evangelical Christians and regular churchgoers were reluctant to throw their support behind Trump, this key Republican voting bloc is now his solid base. And they’re missing in this first-in-the-nation primary.

In Iowa last week, Trump improved on his 2016 caucuses performance by 35 points in the most evangelical areas of the state, according to a Washington Post analysis. That’s just the latest evidence that evangelical voters are his to lose. In the 2020 general election, he won 59 percent of voters who attend church at least monthly, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. More than that, Trump moved many of his voters to identify as evangelical Christian, regardless of their church attendance habits.

Evangelicals remain one of the most motivated, active parts of the Republican Party nationwide, and, without that, Trump’s campaign might be missing a little steam. In addition to being less religious, New Hampshire residents have other identity markers that pull them further from Trump’s base. It’s one of the most educated states in the country, and has had an active Libertarian Party. In this respect, New Hampshire Republicans are a bit different from their fellow party members in other states. All of these factors might be giving Haley a small opening, but Trump is still favored to win.

Looking beyond that toward November, New Hampshire has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election save one since 1992. So while the eventual Republican nominee will have a shot, the less religious nature of New Hampshire might be a sign that the state is simply becoming more solidly Democratic like its New England neighbors, at least when it comes to presidential elections.

—Monica Potts, 538