New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: January 23, 2024, 4:30 PM EST

Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.

ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.

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Here's how the news is developing. All times Eastern.
Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
Jan 23, 2024, 8:51 PM EST

Answer: Might Haley pull a DeSantis?

Hmm, I dunno, Jacob. I kinda think Haley might pull a DeSantis: She thinks she can muddle through now, but in a couple weeks, if she hasn’t made any dent in Trump’s lead in South Carolina, she may decide it’s fruitless and pull the plug. She may want to avoid the embarrassment of losing in her home state. In any event, I am quite sure that Haley will drop out if she loses South Carolina outright — meaning I bet Super Tuesday won’t even be relevant this year.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Jacob Rubashkin Image
ByJacob Rubashkin
Jan 23, 2024, 8:48 PM EST

Answer: Why drop out now?

Elliott, I think that the window for her to drop out after losing tonight probably closes pretty soon. It's a long month between now and South Carolina, but Haley seems set on making it to her home state. If a loss tonight wasn't enough to push her out, I'm not sure what will change over the next few weeks to alter that calculus. She's got a big ad buy coming down the pike in South Carolina (which, of course, could be canceled) and talks up the state all the time.

To me, the more fun question is whether or not Haley seriously contests the actual next contest after New Hampshire, the US Virgin Islands caucus on February 8. The USVI had been on my radar because the GOP there will conduct its caucus using ranked-choice voting, which I believe is unique among Republican contests, but in a two-person race, ranked-choice is a little less interesting.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Julia Azari Image
ByJulia Azari
Jan 23, 2024, 8:46 PM EST

Answer: Will Haley stay in for South Carolina?

Haley has a good deal of cash on hand, and I can imagine a world in which she raises some more if she loses by less than double-digits tonight — which is a big if. Even if the anti-Trump Republican contingent is pretty small, this is their best chance at consolidating.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

G. Elliott Morris Image
ByG. Elliott Morris
Jan 23, 2024, 8:44 PM EST

Question time: How far does Haley take this?

Whether Haley loses by 10 or 13 points tonight, I think we can all agree Trump is still on track to win — almost certainly, if we're being probabilistic. But as we just saw, that does not mean Haley will quit! So, what does the team think about how long she will hold on? Does she run all the way through South Carolina, where Trump is currently approaching a 40-point lead?

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

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