New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

I'm not sure. In earlier live blogs and chats, we've wondered if one candidate could consolidate the non-Trump vote. It looks like Haley has done that in New Hampshire. Thirty-five percent of New Hampshire voters identified with the MAGA movement, according to exit polls, and Haley won 66 percent of those who were not part of the movement. If she wants to prove that there is a contingent of Republicans in the country that do not want a second Trump term, she could stay in and hope that something happens or she gains actual ... wait for it ... momentum. She said in her speech that it's not over, and that's technically true.

—Monica Potts, 538

Hmm, I dunno, Jacob. I kinda think Haley might pull a DeSantis: She thinks she can muddle through now, but in a couple weeks, if she hasn’t made any dent in Trump’s lead in South Carolina, she may decide it’s fruitless and pull the plug. She may want to avoid the embarrassment of losing in her home state. In any event, I am quite sure that Haley will drop out if she loses South Carolina outright — meaning I bet Super Tuesday won’t even be relevant this year.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Elliott, I think that the window for her to drop out after losing tonight probably closes pretty soon. It's a long month between now and South Carolina, but Haley seems set on making it to her home state. If a loss tonight wasn't enough to push her out, I'm not sure what will change over the next few weeks to alter that calculus. She's got a big ad buy coming down the pike in South Carolina (which, of course, could be canceled) and talks up the state all the time.

To me, the more fun question is whether or not Haley seriously contests the actual next contest after New Hampshire, the US Virgin Islands caucus on February 8. The USVI had been on my radar because the GOP there will conduct its caucus using ranked-choice voting, which I believe is unique among Republican contests, but in a two-person race, ranked-choice is a little less interesting.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Haley has a good deal of cash on hand, and I can imagine a world in which she raises some more if she loses by less than double-digits tonight — which is a big if. Even if the anti-Trump Republican contingent is pretty small, this is their best chance at consolidating.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor