New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: January 23, 2024, 4:30 PM EST

Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.

ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.

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Here's how the news is developing. All times Eastern.
Dan Hopkins Image
ByDan Hopkins
Jan 23, 2024, 9:02 PM EST

Republicans see ideological differences between Trump and Haley (but didn't between Trump and DeSantis)

DeSantis and Haley were vying to be the last opponent standing to Trump, and with DeSantis suspending his campaign over the weekend, Haley got her wish. An interesting side-effect is that we now have more of an ideological race. In a November 2023 survey, I found that Republicans evaluated Trump and DeSantis as similarly conservative. Haley, however, they saw as more moderate. So with DeSantis's departure, we have a clearer ideological divide.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

Jacob Rubashkin Image
ByJacob Rubashkin
Jan 23, 2024, 9:01 PM EST

Trump's double whammy

Trump tonight did something no Republican presidential candidate has done since President Ford in 1976: win both Iowa and New Hampshire in a contested primary. As I've been saying for a while, Trump is effectively the incumbent in this process — much in the same way that Ford was an incumbent with an asterisk in 1976. (He was the sitting president, but nobody had voted for him for anything.)

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Dan Hopkins Image
ByDan Hopkins
Jan 23, 2024, 8:59 PM EST

Not all nominees win New Hampshire

Worth remembering that in 2020, the person who ultimately won the Democratic primary finished ... checks notes ... fifth in New Hampshire.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

Dan Hopkins Image
ByDan Hopkins
Jan 23, 2024, 8:57 PM EST

Can polls measure electability 10 months out?

In her speech, Haley mentioned polling showing her beating Joe Biden while Trump does not. Can you trust those findings? When I analyzed the same question in 2016, I found that voters who said they'd back one candidate but not another during the primary often mean it during the general.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

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