New Hampshire is dangerous terrain for incumbents
Something I’ve been turning over in my mind is whether Trump is more similar to an incumbent president seeking his party’s renomination, or to a candidate pursuing the nod in an open field. Trump has already been nominated twice by the GOP, and, obviously, occupied the White House for four years, making him perhaps one of the best-known people in the world. In that sense, he has a lot of the advantages of an incumbent. And it’s worth noting that some of the other presidents who have pursued non-consecutive terms, like Grover Cleveland and Theodore Roosevelt, also used the tools at their disposal — especially their ability to communicate with the public — to try to dominate their parties.
It matters for how we think about the eventual result. If Haley finishes with a strong second, that’s the kind of result that’s pointed to real vulnerability with past incumbents in New Hampshire. As Dan Hopkins pointed out earlier, competition in New Hampshire foreshadowed Lyndon B. Johnson’s decision not to run for reelection in 1968. George H.W. Bush was “jarred” in 1992 by Pat Buchanan taking 40 percent of the New Hampshire vote. And Gerald Ford had a narrow win over Ronald Reagan in 1976 in the vote totals, previewing not only a tough general election, but also brewing divisions in the GOP ranks.
This has implications for Biden as well, who is projected to win New Hampshire, despite not officially being on the ballot.
—Julia Azari, 538 contributor
