Nov 30
ABC News Photo Illutration, AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough
538's polls policy and FAQs
How we decide which surveys to include in our database and models.
November 27, 2023Which states could get new congressional maps in 2024?
An updating tracker of developments in midcycle redistricting.
October 03, 2023Why Biden should be thankful it's not 2024 yet
And what some other politicians might be feeling grateful for this week.
November 21, 2023
Latest 538 Video
Latest 538 Headlines
November 30
Why is Biden losing support from people of color?
His numbers among Black, Hispanic and Asian Americans have reached a new low.
November 30
November 27
Why the GOP may be ready to say goodbye to Santos| FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
The crew discuss how likely Rep. George Santos is to be expelled from Congress.
November 27
November 27
538's polls policy and FAQs
How we decide which surveys to include in our database and models.
November 27
November 21
Why Biden should be thankful it's not 2024 yet
And what some other politicians might be feeling grateful for this week.
November 21
November 21
What these swing voters have to say about the 2024 election
Galen Druke speaks to three swing voters in Simi Valley, California.
November 21
November 20
Everything you need to know about Utah's 2nd District special election
Republicans are favored to win, but the margin could be close.
November 20
November 20
The Utah 2nd District special election could be closer than you think
Democrats are waging a strong campaign in this solid-red district.
November 20
November 17
The Squad's views on Israel could bolster primary opposition in 2024
Outside groups could spend big to boost their challengers.
November 17
November 16
The fight for working-class voters | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Non-college-educated voters have shifted right but it remains to be seen if they will they stay there.
November 16
November 16
What the 2023 elections can — and can't — tell us about 2024
Beware of using this November's elections as a crystal ball.
November 16
November 15
Who's the front-runner to be Trump's VP pick?
It's another 538 draft!
November 15
November 14
Why Tim Scott's presidential campaign failed
A strong candidate on paper didn't capture voters' hearts in practice.
November 14
November 13
If the 2024 election were held today, would Trump win?
The crew looks at what all the data says one year out from the 2024 elections.
November 13
November 13
Where do Americans stand on gun control?
Most Americans want stricter gun laws but don't think they'll get them.
November 13
November 10
Joe Manchin was a unicorn. Now he's retiring.
Democrats will likely lose West Virginia's Senate seat in 2024.
November 10
November 09
Haley takes on Ramaswamy and DeSantis in third GOP debate
The crew reacts to the third Republican primary debate in this late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast.
November 09
November 08
The 2023 elections were good for Democrats | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
The crew unpacks the results from election night 2023 and looks ahead to 2024.
November 08
November 06
Will Kentucky and Mississippi elect Democrats?| FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
The crew previews Election Day 2023.
November 06
November 03
2023 elections to watch: Mississippi governor
Democrats could win the governor's office for the first time since 1999.
November 03
November 02
Adam Kinzinger muses: ‘I would love to run against Ted Cruz'
The former congressman and recent Texas transplant explains why he's not done with politics just yet.
November 02
November 02
2023 elections to watch: Kentucky governor
Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is popular, but Kentucky is a red state.
November 02
November 01
2023 elections to watch: Ohio's abortion vote
A ballot measure could enshrine abortion rights in the Ohio Constitution.
November 01
October 30
Pence is out, Phillips is in | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
The crew discusses former Vice President Mike Pence dropping out of the Republican primary race.
October 30
October 30
Why is Rep. Dean Phillips challenging President Joe Biden?
The crew looks at why Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips entered the Democratic primary race.
October 30
October 26
2023 elections to watch: Virginia legislature
Republicans are hoping to win a "trifecta" in Virginia.
October 26
October 25
Who will be the next House speaker?
The 538 podcast crew makes the case for why 12 different Republicans could take the gavel.
October 25
October 23
How misinformation amplifies the Israel-Hamas conflict
Ian Bremmer from the Eurasia Group reveals how misinformation increases tensions in Gaza.
October 23
October 23
Our first-ever House speaker draft | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
The crew looks at who will take control after 20 days of a speaker-less House.
October 23
October 23
Young voters could have a big impact in 2024, study says
Americans under 30 hold more liberal views than the general electorate across a range of policy issues.
October 23
October 19
How House Republicans failed to elect a speaker| FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
After the ouster of Speaker Kevin McCarthy, House Republicans have struggled to unite around a new speaker candidate.
October 19
October 18
What the latest fundraising numbers say for Trump and his challengers
Fundraising numbers show former President Donald Trump in the commanding lead in the 2024 GOP primary.
October 18
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