How can I tell if I'm saving enough for retirement?

ByABC News
September 6, 2011, 4:53 PM

— -- Q: How much should the typical 45-year old currently have invested for retirement?

A: Investors are realizing, the hard way, that there's no substitute for saving when it comes to retirement. During large parts of the 1980s and 1990s, if investors were a bit behind saving for retirement, it wasn't a big deal. Stocks did so well during large periods of time in those decades, remarkable returns could fix many faulty retirement investment plans.

Talk about a stock market that could fix even the worst retirement plan. Stocks posted positive returns every year during the 1980s, except in 1981, when they fell just 4.9%. It was a similar situation in the 1990s, with stocks posting positive returns in every year of the decade except for a 3.1% decline in 1990. Some of the annual returns in the 1980s and 1990s were nothing short of breathtaking. Investors knew, and they were right, that if they just saved a little and stayed invested, they'd be fine.

But everything changed in 2000. Suddenly, following a string of three annual losses, investors found out the stock market gravy train had run dry. Returns since 2000 have been anemic at best. Making things worse, historic levels of volatility have prompted many investors to panic and sell, missing out on sporadic rallies.

The bottom line? It's back to basics. And when it comes to investing, the most fundamental basic is saving. Where should the typical 45-year-old be?

It's impossible to answer that question based on the data provided. There are dozens of factors that will determine the answer, including how much you plan to spend each year in retirement, how much you make and when you plan to retire. However, it's an interesting exercise. Using IFA.com's Retirement Analyzer, and some general assumptions, you can get a general idea of how much money you should have at this point.

For this calculation, I'll assume you have a household income of $80,000 and that your income is expected to grow by 2% a year. I'll also assume you plan to save 10% of your income each year for retirement, plan to retire at 65, need $50,000 a year in today's dollars to live over 30 years after retirement.

Running the analysis, and keeping all the assumptions in mind, it would appear that you should have at least $275,000 saved at this point. If you have $275,000, and maintain your savings rate, you will have enough money to last you to age 95 if the market turns in an average return.

Certainly, if the market has an above average run, you might end up with more than $14 million in your estate. But there's an equally small chance the market will do much worse than average and you could run out of money as soon as age 76. But these are extremes that have only a 10% chance of occurring.

And that's why $275,000 is a good proxy of where you should be. It never hurts to save more to give you more protection from unexpected events.

Given the fact the stock market isn't likely to bail you out, you simply must learn to cut costs and postpone spending to boost savings. And don't make the mistake of thinking Social Security will bail you out either.

The only way most people will have any chance at retiring amid this age of subpar returns is to save as much as they can.

Matt Krantz is a financial markets reporter at USA TODAY and author of Investing Online for Dummies and Fundamental Analysis for Dummies. He answers a different reader question every weekday in his Ask Matt column at money.usatoday.com. To submit a question, e-mail Matt at mkrantz@usatoday.com. Follow Matt on Twitter at: twitter.com/mattkrantz