Shoppers cautious as retailers dangle Black Friday deals
— -- Matt Wilson, a 38-year-old business analyst and father of two, plans to shop on Black Friday and beyond but says it's no time to splurge.
Despite secure jobs for the Westland, Mich., man and his wife, who manages a store, they'll budget pretty closely for the holidays.
"Things are still tough," said Wilson, while shopping with his sons Coen, 4, and Blake, 19 months. They were at the mall for haircuts and Christmas shopping. "In this economy, regardless of what you make, you have to be careful."
In a season of Thanksgiving store openings to lure shoppers out earlier than ever for Black Friday doorbusters, retailers are daring shoppers to load up. But some shoppers aren't buying it.
Rising gasoline prices and stubbornly high unemployment, along with volatile housing and stock markets have kept consumers extra cautious this year.
And that's resulted in some fairly modest sales forecasts for the holiday season, which encompasses November and December sales.
The National Retail Federation has predicted a 2.8% increase to $465.6 billion and the International Council of Shopping Centers has forecast a 2.2% rise in shopping center sales to $449 billion.
Moody's Investors Service is predicting a 3% rise in holiday sales based on higher prices because of inflation rather than an increase in demand. But online sales are expected to jump 15% and will be the bright spot of the holiday season.
Yet there's growing speculation that consumers will play it cool and retailers will have flat sales despite smart inventory control.
One study indicates that 72% of U.S. consumers plan "careful" or "controlled" holiday spending with 88% spending the same or less than last year. That's according to Accenture, a global consulting firm.
Janet Hoffman, managing director of Accenture's retail practice, said shoppers will be "very targeted about where and what they buy, and will be more inclined to shop around for the best value."
The online survey of 500 consumers indicated that a quarter of shoppers, or 24%, planned to have a "thrifty" holiday season and 18% say they'll focus on necessities. Just 6% say they plan on "extravagant" or "unrestrained" holiday spending.
The biggest concerns of consumers this year are increasing food bills, gas prices, home energy bills and fear of losing their job or a recent job loss, the Accenture survey found.
The silver lining for retailers is that more shoppers — 19% this year compared with 14% last year — plan to spend $750 or more.
"The research data, and our conversations with clients, leads us to expect a boost from high-income shoppers, who are planning to treat themselves and their families," Hoffman said.
The majority of consumers, or 71.2%, plan to pay for their gifts with debit cards, cash or check, according to a survey commissioned by the National Retail Federation. And 28.8% say they will charge gifts.
ShopperTrak, a Chicago-based retail consulting firm, has forecast a 3% rise in holiday retail sales and a 2.2% decline in mall foot traffic as economic strains take their toll on shoppers.
"Every shopper in a store will be more valuable than last year, and retail stores should be ready to convert their holiday shoppers into sales," said Bill Martin, ShopperTrak co-founder.
