POLL: Confidence Edges Up, But Expectations Are Grim
Sept. 18, 2007 — -- Consumer confidence is up from its 2007 low mark, but optimism about the economy's future has hit its lowest point in nearly 15 years.
The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index now stands at -15 on its scale of +100 to -100, up from -20 a month ago. While a bit better, the index is still below its annual and long-term averages.
In a separate measure of expectations, just eight percent of Americans express positive views about the future economy, the fewest since October 1992. Far more, 49 percent, think the economy's getting worse, well above the 26-year average of 39 percent, perhaps in reaction to the variety of recent negative economic news, including a poor August jobs report, slowing retail sales, and a slumping housing market.
INDEX -- The index is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, personal finances and the buying climate. In this week's CCI, 34 percent say it's a good time to buy things, nine points below its 2007 peak. About as many, 36 percent, rate the economy positively, 12 points below its high this year. More, 57 percent, say their personal finances are OK; that's eight points off its 2007 high.
EXPECTATIONS -- Optimism, as noted, is at its lowest point in nearly 15 years, with only eight percent saying the economy is getter better. Forty-nine percent say the economy is worsening, down from a 2007 high of 57 percent last month.
Optimism is now 12 points lower than its long-term average in polls since March 1981 and 10 points lower than its 2007 high. It is, however, above its all-time low of three percent in October 1990.
Both optimism and pessimism are decreasing as more people are on the fence this month. Forty-one percent think the economy is "staying the same" this month, up 15 points from last month, and the most since February.
TREND -- The CCI has backed off its 2007 low of -20 on Aug. 19, gaining five points over the past month. Still, at -15, the ABC/Post index is seven points below its 2007 average (-8), 17 points off of its 2007 high (+2 on March 11) and six points below its average since the start of this weekly survey in late 1985. The CCI peaked at +38 in January 2000 and bottomed out at -50 in February 1992.
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