Networks may struggle to meet upfront expectations
— -- The women of Desperate Housewives had it tough when a tornado tore through their town. Now, the show's parent network — ABC — and its broadcast brethren face harsh winds of change as they enter TV's upfront selling period.
This week, the networks are presenting their upcoming roster of TV programs in hopes of securing billions of dollars in early ad deals. During upfront sales, networks traditionally sell about three-fourths of their prime-time fall season inventory.
But there are signs of a difficult selling climate. Already in 2007, spending on network TV ads dropped 2% to $22.4 billion, says TNS Media Intelligence. Going into this upfront, overall broadcast ratings are down.
Among other challenges:
•There's less glitz to sell. The three-months-long Writers Guild of America strike hampered development on new shows. That means fewer TV pilots to showcase to ad buyers. Also, a potential Screen Actors Guild strike now looms, with the contract for TV and movie actors up on June 30.
•There are fewer eyeballs. Consumers are watching ad-free shows on video on demand and using digital video recorders to save and view shows while skipping through ads.
•There's less money to spend. Faced with a sputtering economy, marketers are keeping a tight grip on ad budgets.
"A material decline (in upfront sales) is probable, given ratings declines, the disruption in the development cycle due to the recent writers' strike and economic woes," Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen said in a recent report.
In the best-case scenario, broadcast networks would reap $8.79 billion in upfront sales, down 2% from 2007, she says. In the worst case, spending would drop 14% to $7.73 billion.
The networks also face competition from cable rivals, which weren't as affected by the strike because many of them air movies, unscripted shows and reruns. Cable is also getting creative with its ad units. For instance, Turner Broadcasting System's TNT and TBS are selling two-minute sponsored "ad breaks," in which marketers can incorporate their products. These long-form commercials center on entertainment-focused storylines such as a new "microseries" about an undercover Drug Enforcement Administration agent who drives a Dodge Challenger.
