Toyota expects first operating loss since 1938

— -- Toyota, long the auto industry's poster child for efficiency, revised its predictions Monday to forecast its first operating loss since 1938, largely because of weak U.S. sales.

Despite the rare stumble, the Japanese automaker is likely to eek out a net profit for the fiscal year ending March 31, officials disclosed in Tokyo.

The automaker also lowered its projections for the number of vehicles it expects to sell worldwide for the fiscal year ending next March to 9 million, which would be 4% less than last year. Toyota is known as a company that rarely flubs on the production line or the balance sheet. This time, it's caught in the same sales undertow that led to last week's federal bailout of General Motors and Chrysler.

"Toyota is not immune to the cycles within the industry," says Rebecca Lindland, a director for consultants IHS Global Insight.

In the U.S., Toyota sales are down 13.4% for the first 11 months of the year. The slide picked up speed in November, when sales plunged 33.9%, Autodata reports.

Behind Toyota's money woes:

•Big vehicles. Though known for the gas-sipping Prius, Camry and Corolla, Toyota has gradually moved into the big pickups and SUVs Americans craved. They have higher profit margins, but sales plummeted earlier this year when the gas price crunch hit, and haven't significantly rebounded.

•Imports. While Toyota has moved aggressively in opening U.S. plants, many of its Lexus and Scion vehicles are still made in Japan. That worked fine while the yen was weak, but now it's at a 13-year high.

•No layoff policy. Unlike many other automakers, Toyota doesn't stop paying workers when it idles plants. While it just added up to 10 more closure days to its U.S. plants this month and next, workers will still show up and get paid for further training and maintenance.