US durable goods orders up 1.2 percent in December

US durable goods orders up 1.2 percent in December but investment category fell for second month

WASHINGTON -- Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods posted a 1.2 percent advance in December, but much of the strength came from a surge in demand for commercial aircraft, a notoriously volatile sector.

In a worrisome development, a key category that tracks business investment fell for a second straight month.

The December advance in orders for durable goods followed a 1 percent rise in November which was revised up from an initial reading of 0.7 percent, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

But orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched category used as a proxy for business investment plans, fell 0.7 percent in December after a 1 percent drop in November.

Analysts called this a troubling sign that business investment, a key area that has supported economic growth during this recovery, could be losing momentum despite the big corporate tax cut Congress approved in December 2017 that was aimed at boosting investment.

"Unfortunately, there looks to be little prospect of a rebound in investment growth any time soon," said Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. "There has been a clear deterioration in global manufacturing conditions in recent months."

The strength in the overall number for orders came from a 28.4 percent jump in commercial aircraft orders, which can swing sharply from month to month.

The government will finally provide a look at the economy's overall performance next week when it releases the gross domestic product for the fourth quarter. Analysts have been downgrading their estimates of this figure since a disappointing December retail sales report last week showing that sales had plunged 1.2 percent in December, the biggest one-month decline in nine years.

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase have trimmed their forecast for fourth-quarter GDP to a 1.6 percent rate of increase with first-quarter growth expected to come in at 1.8 percent. That would mark a sizable downshift from GDP growth of 4.2 percent in the second quarter last year and 3.4 percent in the third quarter.

The durable goods report showed that demand for primary metals such as steel fell 0.9 percent in December while orders for machinery dipped 0.4 percent and orders for communications equipment plunged 5 percent.