Stratfor: China’s Weapons Push in Africa

Aug. 25 -- China has dispatched four military delegations to sub-Saharan Africa in the last few months. Officially, the trips are to strengthen military cooperation between China and its African allies.

In reality, the trips signal China’s plan to increase its weapons sales. Once one regional player starts modernizing its weapons, others will be forced to follow suit. South Africa and the United Nations have worked to resolve the region’s conflicts. But China’s new policy—really intended to get the People’s Liberation Army out of the Chinese economy—threatens to create a miniature but destabilizing arms race in southern Africa.

Such an arms race could threaten one of the few sources of stability in the region: South Africa’s military superiority. Pretoria still has the upper hand, compared to other regional militaries. And South Africa has scaled down its troop numbers while modernizing its weaponry. In September 1999, South Africa spent $5 billion on high-tech, foreign-made weapons, including three new submarines, four warships, 40 helicopters and 28 fighter jets.

Small Deals A reported Aug. 14 PLA visit to Namibia is part of a pattern stretching back to May, when Chinese officers visited Angola and Botswana. Both missions resulted in bilateral agreements to strengthen military cooperation. In July, a group of Chinese warships made a landmark visit to the continent, calling on ports in South Africa and Tanzania.

These contacts appear to be aimed at achieving financial gain, not the geopolitical influence that Beijing sought in Africa during the Cold War. In a bid to counter both Moscow and Washington, Beijing supported rebel movements in Angola and Namibia and sold arms to Sudan and Zimbabwe.

Today, Beijing is looking to shift its military’s money-making away from China’s domestic industries and toward shipping arms abroad. Doing so will strengthen civilian Chinese leaders. Arms exports, after all, require government approval. They also satisfy the PLA’s need for revenues lost as it abandons domestic enterprises.