India's economy expands 0.4% in Oct.-Dec., ending recession

India’s economy expanded by a weaker-than-expected 0.4% in the October-December quarter, which still allowed it to escape recession following large contractions in the two previous quarters during the pandemic

The National Statistical Office projected an 8% contraction for the 2020-21 financial year, which ends in March. In January, it had projected a contraction of 7.7% for the fiscal year, following 4% growth in 2019-20.

It said fertilizer production rose by 2.7% in January, steel by 2.6% and electricity generation by 5.1%. Coal production declined by 1.8%, crude oil by 4.8% and natural gas by 2%, it said in a statement.

India’s economy contracted by 7.5% in the July-September quarter following a record plunge of 23.9% in the previous three months. The government had imposed a strict two-month lockdown across the country in March after the outbreak of the pandemic.

A country enters a technical recession if its economy contracts in two successive quarters. India's recovery is expected to improve with a rise in consumer demand and investment.

India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, is projecting gross domestic product growth of 10.5% in financial year 2021-22. The International Monetary Fund has projected 11.5% growth in calendar 2021.

The IMF estimated that the Indian economy contracted 8% in 2020.