JERUSALEM -- A new poll released Tuesday finds a dramatic surge in Palestinian support for Hamas following last month's Gaza war, with around three quarters viewing the Islamic militants as victors in a battle against Israel to defend Jerusalem and its holy sites.
The scientific poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research also found plummeting support for President Mahmoud Abbas, who was sidelined by the war but is seen internationally as a partner for reviving the long-defunct peace process.
The poll found that 53% of Palestinians believe Hamas is “most deserving of representing and leading the Palestinian people,” while only 14% prefer Abbas' secular Fatah party.
Head pollster Khalil Shikaki, who has been surveying Palestinian public opinion for more than two decades, called it a "dramatic" shift, but said it also resembles previous swings toward Hamas during times of confrontation. Those all dissipated within three to six months as Hamas failed to deliver on promises of change.
The march to war began in April, when Palestinian protesters clashed with Israeli police on a nightly basis in east Jerusalem over restrictions on public gatherings during the holy month of Ramadan. The clashes eventually spread to the Al-Aqsa mosque compound, a flashpoint holy site, and were also fueled by Jewish settlers' attempts to evict dozens of Palestinian families.
Israel captured east Jerusalem, along with the West Bank and Gaza, in the 1967 war and annexed it in a move not recognized internationally. The Palestinians want a state in all three territories, with east Jerusalem as its capital. Hamas, which is seen as a terrorist organization by Israel and Western countries, does not recognize Israel.
After warning Israel to halt the evictions and withdraw security forces from Al-Aqsa, Hamas launched a barrage of long-range rockets at Jerusalem on May 10, disrupting an annual parade by Jewish ultranationalists celebrating Israel's conquest of east Jerusalem. That sparked an 11-day war in which more than 250 Palestinians were killed, as well as 13 people in Israel.
The poll found that 77% of Palestinians believe Hamas emerged as a winner, with nearly as many saying that it fought the war to defend Jerusalem and its holy sites, rather than as part of an internal struggle with Abbas' Fatah party.
The pollsters held face-to-face surveys with 1,200 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza last week, with a 3 percentage point margin of error.
“Clearly, in the eyes of the public, Hamas came out as a winner," Shikaki said, adding that it may struggle to maintain those gains as it has little control over events in Jerusalem.
An early test loomed Tuesday, when Jewish ultranationalists planned to march through east Jerusalem again. Hamas has called on Palestinians to “resist" but may be reluctant to risk another war just weeks after the last one was halted by an informal cease-fire.
The Biden administration and the international community are meanwhile looking to bolster Abbas. Hamas drove his forces out of Gaza in 2007, confining his Palestinian Authority to parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
At the time, it appeared Fatah would suffer another humiliating defeat to Hamas, which won a landslide victory in 2006 parliamentary elections. But his decision, citing Israel's refusal to grant permission for voting in east Jerusalem, also helped clear the way for Hamas to draw attention to Abbas' weakness in the holy city.
Around two-thirds of Palestinians opposed his decision to call off the vote, the poll found. A similar number believe Abbas did so because he was worried about the results and not because Israel refused to explicitly allow voting in east Jerusalem, as he claimed.
Shikaki said Abbas could potentially regain support, but only if he shows initiative, either by reforming the PA, which is seen as increasingly corrupt and authoritarian, or by taking part in some kind of diplomatic push after a 12-year hiatus in the peace process.
“Unfortunately, so far, we are not seeing Abbas take the initiative," Shikaki said. “We don’t see him talking to the public, he does not have a strategy, he does not have a plan. He is instead waiting... I don’t think that alone is going to work unless Hamas really fails miserably."