Transcript for Experts discuss the impact of the youth vote ahead of 2020 presidential election
We're five days away from election day. So how are Donald Trump and Joe Biden faring in the home stretch? A carcinogen pe yakversity poll just out today showing Biden leading in three battleground states, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio. President trump is up 1 point in to further down the state of the race, earlier I spoke with ABC news contributor Tara setmyer and Sara Fagen, CEO of deep root analytics. Thanks for joining us. First question, Sara, we've seen istent polling across the battleground states for several S showing president trump behind. Is time running out for him to move the needle in his favor? It is starting to run out. There aren't enough days yet to really close the gap. I think the big x-factor, though, is what is turnout going to be? If you look at the polling, certainly it does not look promising for the president. But that assumes that every one of those polls has a turnout projection that fits the poll. It is possible that you could see an incredible number of people show up on election day. It's possible for the president to win the tied states and perhaps pick up Pennsylvania or Michigan. I don't know that that scenario is likely, but I do think it's Tara, with the surge of voters mailing in ballots this year, many crucial swing states won't have an official tally until days after the election. Do you think we'll have a winner on Tuesday? I think that depends on which states we find out about. If we see that there's a Biden win in Florida or Georgia or that it's even close in Texas, I think that we'll have a sense of the momentum of this race. A state like Pennsylvania, a little bit more challenging, since they cannot begin counting the vote until the day of election day or after. And it may take a little while. So folks neat to be patient, but we'll get a sense of where things are depending on who wins what states early. Sara, trump is trailing Biden in several battleground states where covid is rising, like Wisconsin, a 16% increase in hospitalizations in the past how big an issue will covid be on Tuesday? I think there's sort of two factors here. And the impact is both among seniors, which are signifint populations in states like Wisconsin and Iowa, which also has an unfortunately high case load right now. So that's been persistent. I think that's why you've seen a state like Iowa be tied for most of this fall, or maybe at best the president's up a couple of points. Then, of course, the rise in covid cases in the last week I think have really kept those states tight or him behind, in the case of Wisconsin. Tara, with the covid factor, with big crowd gatherings to see president trump, many folks maskless, is this strategy working where he needs it most? I think that the president's irresponsibility and cavalier attitude toward covid will be the ultimate demise of his re-election. Covid is raging across the country. 41 states have an increase in covid cases. Wisconsin is setting up field their hospitals are overrun. El Paso is overrun in Texas. So it is clear that the president, no matter how much he wishes it away, cannot get away from the impact of covid because it impacts Americans' everyday lives, between the economy and losing their loved ones. They live it it's real for them. Let's talk about the senate races that are up for grabs next week. Lindsey graham, Susan Collins, some of the biggest names in the Republican party are in jeopardy of losing. Do you think the senate will flip on Tuesday? I think there's a real possibility the Democrats take back the senate. Lindsey graham has been begging for money, he's been outspent Susan Collins has been fighting for her political life as well. Her unwillingness to involve herself or take a solid position during this admintration or on trump is hurting her in Maine. The momentum is certainly on the side of the Democrats, and it's more of an uphill battle nor the Republicans at this point. Sara, same question. Herein say graham is royalty in South Carolina. Is his seat really in as Tara pointed out, he's being outspent, which is stunning. But I think at the end of the day, Lindsey graham's going to get re-elected. I do think his handling of the Amy coney Barrett supreme court hearings I think helped him in South Carolina. And so I think he'll be okay. But I believe the senate is likely to go the way of the presidency. Final question to you both. Almost 7 million young folks have early voted already. Which candidate is more likely to benefit from the youth vote? Well, I think over the course of the last 20-some years, young people have tended democratic by higher numbers. So that will benefit Biden. I think that is a long-term problem that the Republican party has to address. Tara, the last word. Sara's absolutely right. Traditionally, 18 to 29-year-olds have a lower propensity to vote, but this time around we're looking at a lot of first-time voters, voters who have grown up in the era of parkland and school shootings, and they are motivated, and they're out there voting in exponentially larger numbers than they have in the past, particularly in places like Florida, Michigan, and Texas. So it's definitely advantage Biden. Ladies, thank you both so much. Rest up. It's going to be a long few
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