Iowa Independents Projected to Turn Out for Democrats

Jan. 3, 2008— -- Thousands more Iowa independent voters are expected to turn out for Democratic presidential candidates than Republicans at today's Iowa caucuses.

If polls and turnout forecasts are accurate, Iowa independents would be following the lead set by their national peers in 2006.

Nationwide, independents backed Democrats heavily in the watershed 2006 elections, in part out of a rejection of President Bush and a loud cry for change that has continued into the 2008 campaign, strategists in both parties agree.

Recent polls have shown the percentage of Iowa independents planning to participate in the Democratic caucuses is far higher than those who say they will caucus for Republicans. Turnout for the Democrats is projected to be higher than Republicans, perhaps double.

Tonight's caucuses in 1,781 precincts - located in fire stations, school auditoriums, church basements, and the like - start the process of winnowing the field of candidates who are pursuing the Republican and Democratic nominations for president.

The caucuses are the culmination of the countless rallies, town hall meetings and house parties the candidates have held in all 99 of Iowa's counties for the past year.

Because the caucuses represent the first hint of the 2008 election year's political mood, the trend among independents is a warning to Republicans about the general election, top national GOP strategists say.

It's also a sign the Democratic candidates' common agenda of ending the war in Iraq and easing pocketbook pressure is reaching beyond their base, campaign consultants in both parties say.

"It isn't always true that what energizes your base energizes the independent swing voters," said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster. "But the Democrats are finding their footing and finding that what energizes our base energizes independents."

Dominic Sweeney, an independent from Zwingle, plans to attend a Democratic caucus for the first time after what he describes as a series of problems representative of the nation's.