Analysis: Shutdown winners and losers

Winners include Trump and red state Democrats, losers include Dreamers

Over the next two weeks or so, voters will get a better sense of the real impact and consequences of last weekend’s shutdown, but in the meantime - who blinked and who came out on top - at least for now?

Here’s our take on the political winners and losers:

Winners

Senate Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. With the exception of a few rather predictable outliers, McConnell managed to keep the majority of Senate Republicans voting together as a bloc. And in just a few days, his team was able to persuade half of those Republican holdouts and a majority of Democrats to come around and re-open the government. He managed to broker a deal without really putting anything in writing and without having to put himself out there as the negotiator with the House or the White House. All he promised was to bump up immigration on the Senate schedule, which he controls. How the House or the White House react to whatever the Senate potentially passes, remains out of his hands.

Losers

House Democrats and possible 2020 contenders Jammed by their counterparts, a number of Hill Democrats ended up politically tied to a deal they did not like. While 16 Senate Democrats and 144 House Democrats voted against the deal - including nearly all rumored 2020 candidates - none of those folks looked very powerful Monday. Will a “no” vote on a big deal that still passed be enough to keep activists and grassroots organizers in their corner? Only time will tell. But it’s likely outsider Democrats and maybe even third party potential candidates got a boost Monday.