Why Eric Cantor's Big Loss Isn't Really That Surprising

PHOTO: House Majority Leader Eric Cantor delivers a concession speech in Richmond, Va., June 10, 2014. Cantor lost in the GOP primary to tea party candidate Dave Brat.PlaySteve Helber/AP Photo
WATCH Cantor's Defeat Leaves Hole in Republican Leadership

Many of us have described House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s stunning upset loss in the Republican primary as a political earthquake that will send a tsunami across the Washington, D.C., landscape. Folks have said this is a surprising disruptive force in our country’s politics. Yes, too often in analyzing political events we sometimes overplay what something means or conversely we underplay what it all is telling us.

The more I think about it this surprising loss by a powerful incumbent leader is more akin to an asteroid hitting the ocean and creating more waves in our status quo system of governing today. And this asteroid is a part of a larger asteroid field that has been bombarding our politics for nearly a generation. If we really look, it has been there all along, and we just go on with our commentary forgetting that there are more asteroids to land. We act like every time this happens it is shocking and comes out of nowhere, but our political earth has been getting hit for years by this disruption.

It has happened from election to election over the last 20 years. Every time one party believes it has the mandate of the American public, another asteroid hits where the party in power loses. Or another politician loses in a primary when the voters think he or she just isn’t getting what they are trying to communicate. These asteroids are disturbing the entrenched powers in our politics, our economy, and our media. And the force of all these asteroids will only grow in force, frequency, and impact until our leaders respond.

But let us pause for a moment and see what this latest political event might be telling us, or rather reminding us of what our landscape really looks like. Today, I can point to five meanings behind Majority Leader Cantor’s loss.

1. Money matters much less than message. Cantor outspent his opponent by a ratio of nearly 25 to 1! In fact, Cantor spent more on dinners in Washington, D.C., than his opponent spent in total for his whole campaign. We are at a moment where big message and momentum trumps big money, and this has been the case for election after election in the last few years. An incumbent candidate can’t solve their problems of being out of touch with their constituency by throwing cash and consultants at it. It will eventually catch up to them.

2. Washington, D.C., is a fatal virus that will take leaders down. Once someone becomes captive of Washington and catches Potomac fever, voters will react strongly against them. Being part of the status quo of the federal government, which is distrusted and despised by most voters, is lethal in the long haul. American citizens want a total reform of how Washington does business, and our two political parties are seen as having contracted this virus and are distrusted as well.

3. Wall Street, while doing well in this economy, is seen not as serving a broader purpose of helping all Americans, but as in it for their own advancement and enrichment. Over the last generation, the top 5 percent of this country has done very well and advanced financially, while the rest has been stagnant or fallen behind. Leaders who take care of the titans of Wall Street will ultimately take themselves out of a job.

4. In the 2016 Presidential election, if you are seen as part of the DC or Wall Street status quo, you have huge hurdles to overcome. The best position to run from is not with tons of endorsements, campaign cash, and Washington experience, but rather as an outsider who can correct the dysfunction and get things done. Americans want someone who will represent them as a leader, not someone who is captive of Wall Street or the Washington way of doing business.

5. A force of independents will grow and become more vocal each time one of these asteroids hits. Each time voters disrupt politics in these elections, and then neither political party seems to pay heed, this will only increase the sense that our current two-party system is totally broken. This may not conclude in an Independent party, but it will definitely grow into an increasingly strong independent movement that will push Washington to do the right thing.

These are my five takeaways from the latest asteroid to hit our political planet, and it is important to keep in mind that these are not singular events but part of a broader asteroid field which has been hitting us for years. And if our leaders don’t respond in a real way, there is bigger impacts coming our way. And not even Bruce Willis will be able to save the current political leaders.

There you have it.

Matthew Dowd is an ABC News analyst and special correspondent.

Opinions expressed in this column do not reflect the views of ABC News.