Election 2020: SCOTUS rejects attempt to block extended ballot deadline

A surge in coronavirus cases has damaged Trump's re-election campaign in Wisconsin, with growing criticism of his work on the pandemic and preference for Biden to handle it. Biden holds a slighter advantage in Michigan, with sizable leads among women, moderates and independents in ABC News/Washington Post polls in both states.

Biden leads Trump by 57-40% among likely voters in Wisconsin, a state that's now reported to be third in the nation in per capita COVID-19 cases, with a 53% increase in average daily cases in the past two weeks, a record number of hospitalizations and a 112% jump in deaths. That compares with a closer 52-46% in mid-September.

In Michigan, it's 51-44%, Biden-Trump, among likely voters, a slight Biden lead in this poll produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. 

Behind it all, an atypical election clock is ticking. Thirty-seven percent of likely voters in Wisconsin, and 38% in Michigan, say they've already voted. And an additional 23% in Wisconsin, and 18% in Michigan, say they will vote early or absentee. Early voters are strong Biden groups. The share planning to vote on Election Day -- broadly for Trump -- has fallen from 51% last month to 39% now in Wisconsin. It's 43% in Michigan.

-ABC News’ Polling Director Gary Langer

Adm. Brett Giroir, a member of the White House coronavirus task force who was charged with leading the country's testing efforts at the beginning of the pandemic and has been careful not to break from the White House message, directly contradicted the president this morning when he acknowledged U.S. coronavirus cases are on the rise -- and not due to testing.

Trump said Tuesday, as he has throughout the pandemic, that the virus is going away and cases are rising due to increased testing -- but Giroir countered both of those points and warned "Draconian measures" may be required "if we don’t make a change." 

"We do believe and the data show that cases are going up. It’s not just a function of testing," Giroir said in an interview this morning on NBC. "Yes, we’re getting more cases identified, but the cases are actually going up. And we know that, too, because hospitalizations are going up."

"It's not just a function of testing," Giroir added, calling the current moment a "critical point" in the country's pandemic response. He went on to remind Americans to practice social distancing, wear a face mask and avoid crowded, indoor spaces -- CDC guidelines which the Trump campaign itself has scantily adhered to.

"If we don't do those things, it may force local officials or government officials in the states to have more draconian measures because cases will go up if we don't make a change," Giroir warned. "The virus isn't acting on its own.”

The president has increasingly sought to tune out that reality as he holds mass gatherings day-after-day in the final stretch of his campaign, including in some of the hardest hit states. At those rallies, Trump has lamented over media coverage of COVID-19, claiming the coverage is intended to hurt his reelection chances. It comes as the U.S. reported a record of more than 500,000 new cases over the past week alone.

-ABC News' Brian Hartman

Trump hit Michigan Tuesday with what's already become a familiar complaint about TV news.

"With them, you can't watch anything else," he said. "You turn on – COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID. COVID, COVID, COVID. COVID!"

There's a reason, of course, for the coverage. And new ABC News/Washington Post polling out Wednesday morning shows how extensively COVID-19 perceptions are impacting the race -- particularly in a few states that are likely to matter the most.

Biden leads Trump 57-40 among likely voters in Wisconsin, and 52-46 in Michigan. That's a sizable lead with less than a week to go in both critical states, with the Wisconsin number striking on its own because it shows a larger margin than other recent polls.

One thing driving the story in Wisconsin in particular: the pandemic. The state is in the midst of a full-on coronavirus crisis, setting new records for hospitalizations and sitting near the top of the list for per capita cases.

The president is 20 points underwater on his handling of the pandemic in Wisconsin, and Biden is trusted more than Trump on the subject by a similar 20 points. The poll shows Trump's support among suburban voters cratering in Wisconsin, particularly in comparison to Michigan.

The polling also shows Trump trailing among seniors in Wisconsin by 24 points and in Michigan by 12 points. He carried voters 65 and older narrowly in both states four years ago, according to exit polls.

Biden can win the presidency by rebuilding the blue wall -- Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania -- without carrying a single other Trump state. It might wind up being rebuilt with help from the crisis that has defined Trump's presidency.

-ABC News’ Political Director Rick Klein