Betting on the Presidential Election

Oct. 31 -- The election’s still a toss-up in the United States, but British gamblers say George W. Bush is going to win the White House.

“Most of the money over the last three or four weeks has been for Bush,” said Matt Finnigan, spokesman for Ladbroke’s, the U.K.’s largest betting house.

It’s illegal to bet on political races in the United States. But overseas, almost anything goes. William Hill, Britain’s second-largest betting house, has already received more than 200,000 pounds ($290,000) in bets on the presidential race, spokeswoman Serena Momberg said.

In England, Ireland, and Australia, bookies all say Gore started strong at the beginning of the campaign, but has drifted off to become the underdog.

The bookmakers better have the odds right — or they’ll get burned in payoffs at the end.

The combination of market forces and financial incentive has led to startlingly accurate advance election results from bookmakers. “For the general election of 1992 in the U.K., everyone said that Labour, led by Neil Kinnock, would win.” Ladbroke's spokesman Ed Nicholson said earlier this year. “We were the only poll that said differently. We said that the Conservatives would get in” — and they did, even though they were 10 points behind in ordinary opinion polls.

Cash Down on Bush

The two big English betting houses have seen most money following the low odds to Bush.

But at O’Halloran’s bookmakers in County Cork, Ireland, the bookies and the “punters” — British Isles slang for gamblers — don't see quite eye to eye. Most of the bets have been placed on Gore, but manager Gary O’Halloran said he’s put the odds on Bush.

“Big bets, small bets, it didn't matter, they were all going for Al Gore and for the Democrats ... at this stage, we’re hoping that Bush does the business,” O’Halloran said.

O’Halloran’s is also handicapping the New York Senate race — Hillary Clinton is heavily favored at 1:3 odds over Rick Lazio at 2:1. They're even taking bets on whether Gore and Bill Clinton will campaign together — most people are betting no at 2:5 odds, with longer 13:8 bets on a replay of Bill and Al’s Excellent Adventure.