Poll: Suspense builds among GOP rivals
In N.H., the Republican 2008 race shows no clear frontrunner.
Oct. 15, 2007 — -- A new statewide survey in New Hampshire shows a Democratic contest that has a clear front-runner and a Republican race that doesn't.
Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a 21-percentage point lead over Democratic rival Barack Obama.
But among Republicans, Mitt Romney has an edge that seems increasingly precarious, while Arizona Sen. John McCain has rebounded to a strong third. Romney was backed by 26% of likely primary voters in the Marist Poll, followed by former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani at 20% and McCain at 17%. Former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson had 10%.
McCain's support was the most firmly committed of the GOP rivals while Romney's was the softest. More than half of McCain's backers said they strongly supported him, compared with just over a third of Romney's supporters.
Among Democrats, Clinton was at 41%, Obama at 20% and former North Carolina senator John Edwards at 11%.
The poll of 1,512 New Hampshire voters was taken by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion from Oct. 4-9. The Granite State's contest is considered critical because it holds the opening primary of the campaign and typically winnows the field for the states that follow.
Even so, its date hasn't been set yet amid jockeying by states to move forward in the political calendar. While Jan. 8 is an option, New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner hasn't ruled out holding the balloting as early as mid-December.
The Republican race seems particularly fluid. Romney, a familiar figure as the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, has seen his lead erode from a high of 33% in a New Hampshire survey in July. McCain's standing fell as low as 10% in midsummer after he spent nearly all of his campaigns funds and shook up his staff.
"The good news in this for McCain is that he's definitely in the thick of things, despite having had a weak six months," says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Poll. "The bad news is that he does better among independents than Republicans." Independent support helped McCain win the primary in 2000 over George W. Bush, but most of the states that follow don't allow unaffiliated voters to participate in primaries.
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