Why Pennsylvania could be the 'tipping point' state

FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelly discusses why the vote count in Pennsylvania could change after election night.
3:19 | 10/29/20

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Transcript for Why Pennsylvania could be the 'tipping point' state
So as we look ahead to Election Day me and perhaps election week. Our friends at 538 are starting did. Game out all the possible scenarios Jeffrey skelley joins us now Jeffrey you go to really interesting article in which everybody else can read on 538 dot com. About how people should brace themselves in the possibility of what's called a blue shift that's where a state on election night looks like it voted. Republican red and the numbers evolved as the week goes on the votes could count it. To blue explain why that might happen or perhaps more importantly where that might happen. Cheryl I articles specifically look at Pennsylvania that you could also see this happen in states like Wisconsin and Michigan. I'm where the processing for balance in so many people are voting by mail on this election. The processing. Can be such that. And those cease they really can't store dealing with a there's no balance until the day of the election and that's particularly true for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I can't start processing mail ballots until 7 AM in Pennsylvania and and when the Kohl's opened Wisconsin. And so thinking about what happens in Pennsylvania. Two murders in just ended. A lot of election gay dealing with Election Day senators finally there was going to be trying to count as meaning he'll balance is they can't vote because they can't start we have at a time like states like Arizona and Florida allow. And he delayed just how much of that mail ballot vote they can count in Pennsylvania and because we know it's pulling. That voters see Clinton go by mail or overwhelmingly democratic Clinton that Joseph Biden. For that reason we expect. Those we count goes to be much more democratic. And the election invalid because you know Republicans. Planned to mostly though. In person on Election Day incident creation. This delusion that people are talking about where. Initially on election 1980 got a wee hours of the morning we could expect president tried to have a meeting Pennsylvania but not hold up. Well how biggest swing are we talking about here because president trump is conditioning the battlefield you my taster to tell people don't believe any votes. They come in. Into the counter. After election night. So how big dealership to I'm not much of the league might he have I know you trend game that out of the article. Right so there hypothetically because he can't know exactly how the counseling to go Pennsylvania's been trying to make investments to quicken. That they kind of mail ballots but. Recent presidential primary only about. Half of all democratic votes were in. By about 3 AM on election night where is a little over 70% of Republican guards were in it. And so if you're sort of take what we know about other pulls a Pennsylvania pres Joseph Biden has about five point lead there and the average. If you Berlin by an outside points in the end. Might mean you can see it's good he's also the record. Mary in terms of that greater accounting you might see is much is like 1516. Point. These are tropical Adrienne endlessly all the way Chillicothe fire quickly provide and wants everything is obviously you could see a pretty big shift. Well that is. Armed with good knowledge there Jeffrey skelley at 538 thanks very much count all the votes that's the basic growth.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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