2010 Political Tsunami Warning: Will GOP's Wave Be Big Enough?

Is the GOP riding a big enough wave to change control of the House?

ByABC News
October 28, 2010, 5:18 PM

Oct. 29, 2010 -- Just four days from the congressional midterm elections, it's not a question of whether a wave will hit Washington on Election Day, but rather a question of how much damage the wave will leave in its wake.

House Democrats will measure success if they lose less than the 39 seats Republicans need in order to seize control of the House of Representatives.

But the forecast isn't looking good. ABC News currently rates 45 House races as "Toss-Ups" and considers 125 House seats competitive. Of the "Toss-Ups," 43 out of 45 seats are currently held by Democratic members or retiring Democratic incumbents.

GOP strategists say that based on internal polling, they've already banked at least two-dozen seats out of the 39 seats Republicans need to win back the House.

"We're starting to see races break open here," a Republican aide told ABC News. "These toss-up races are looking very good now. These are [challenging] Democrats who thought they were immune to the coming wave."

Nevertheless, Democrats are maintaining an air of confidence in the final days leading up to the election.

In an interview with ABC News' Jake Tapper this week on the "Political Punch" webcast, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen said he was "confident that the Democrats are going to retain the majority in the House."