Confidence Flirts with Record Low

July 7, 2009 — -- Consumer confidence is within striking distance of its worst in weekly polls since late 1985 for the third straight week.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -52 on its scale of +100 to -100, 2 points from the lowest on Jan. 25. The index has spent the last three weeks below -50, territory it's seen only 14 times in over 1,220 weeks of polls, with eight of those coming this year alone.

Click here for PDF with charts and data table.

Positive ratings of the buying climate dropped this week, down 4 points to 22 percent, matching the largest one-week drop ever. In 23 years of weekly polls it's fallen this far this fast only eight other times. The other two components of the index – ratings of the economy and personal finances – held near their historic lows.

Continued weakness in the job market isn't helping confidence. The unemployment rate increased in June to 9.5 percent, the highest in 26 years. In a separate measure, the government reported that 467,000 jobs were lost last month, surpassing analysts' expectations. In the first half of the year, 3.4 million jobs have been cut from the nation's payrolls.

INDEX – Ratings of personal finances, typically the best of the CCI's three measures, plunged from a yearly high of 52 percent positive on May 10 to a record low of 39 percent positive for the last two weeks. This week 42 percent rate their finances positively – not much better than the low and 15 points below average.

As noted, ratings of the buying climate, at 22 percent positive, fell 4 points from last week to their lowest in three months. That's 4 points from the low last fall and 15 points below average.

Only 8 percent rate the economy positively, in single digits for 37 of the last 39 weeks and 30 points below average.

TREND – Since reaching its 2009 high on May 10, confidence has dropped 10 points. Its current three-week stretch below -50 is the worst spell since a four-week run from late January to early February, when it hit its lowest, -54.

The index is on pace for its worst year ever. Its average of -49 so far is 37 points below its long-term average of -12, 7 points below last year's average of -42 and 5 points below its 1992 average of -44, the worst full year.