Confidence, Still Scarce, Scrapes Its Way Upward
Twenty-six percent say it is a good time to buy things.
July 28, 2009 — -- Consumer confidence is showing a faint pulse, inching up on the strength of improved sentiment about the buying climate.
The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index still is exceptionally low, -47 on its scale of +100 to -100. But it's climbed 5 points in three weeks to surpass -50, its dead zone, for the first time since mid-June.
Click here for PDF with charts and data table.
Just 26 percent of Americans call it a good time to buy things, but that's up 4 points from last week, to a point from its 2009 high. At the same time just 9 percent say the national economy's in good shape overall – it's been in single digits all but two weeks this year – and fewer than half, 44 percent, rate their own finances positively.
The CCI's slight gain follows a better showing in the housing market last month; new home sales were reported today to have risen more quickly in June than in any month since 2000. But that's an increase from a low level; prices are down 17 percent from a year ago; and on another front, June unemployment hit 9.5 percent.
INDEX – Positive ratings of personal finances and the economy overall are 5 points from their all-time lows, reached in late June and early February, respectively. On the buying climate, positive ratings are 8 points from their record low in October.
At 44 percent positive, ratings of personal finances are well below the long-term average, 57 percent, in weekly polls since late 1985. Positive ratings of the buying climate are 11 points below average; of the national economy, a vast 29 points below.
TREND – The CCI has broken out of a five-week stretch at -50 or lower; it hit -53 on June 21, a point shy of the record low in January. It's averaged -49 this year, a dismal level; its long-term average is -12, its record high, +38.
Indeed the index is running below its worst annual average on record, -44 in 1992. It's been below -40 for a record 66 weeks straight and hasn't been positive since March 2007.
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